PageGroup plc Just Missed EPS By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for PageGroup plc (LON:PAGE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.9% to UK£3.31. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting UK£1.7b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 14%, coming in at just UK£0.09 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for PageGroup

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering PageGroup, is for revenues of UK£1.55b in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 11% reduction in PageGroup's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 5.2% to UK£0.086 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£1.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.10 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£3.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on PageGroup, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£4.50 and the most bearish at UK£3.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that PageGroup's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PageGroup. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that PageGroup's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PageGroup going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with PageGroup , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.