Announcement • Jan 18
Biffa Expects Cancellation of Listing of Shares from London Stock Exchange on 27 January 2023 On 27 September 2022, the boards of Biffa plc (Biffa) and Bears Bidco Limited (Bidco) announced, pursuant to Rule 2.7 of the Takeover Code, that they had reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Biffa (the "Acquisition"). It is intended that the Acquisition will be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006 (the "Scheme"). The shareholder circular relating to the Scheme (the "Scheme Document") was sent, or made available, to Biffa Shareholders on 21 October 2022. Suspension of listing of, and dealings in, Biffa Shares before markets open on 27 January 2023. Cancellation of listing of Biffa Shares is expected by 8:00 a.m. on 27 January 2023. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 21
CEO & Executive Director recently sold UK£352k worth of stock On the 16th of August, Michael Robert Topham sold around 88k shares on-market at roughly UK£3.98 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Michael Robert has been a seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£1.3m. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 18
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.047 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 25 August 2022. Payment date: 10 October 2022. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.3%). Reported Earnings • Aug 03
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: UK£0.058 loss per share (up from UK£0.14 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: UK£1.44b (up 39% from FY 2021). Net loss: UK£17.6m (loss narrowed 56% from FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 100%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 14% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 110 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buying Opportunity • Feb 23
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 12%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£4.05, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. The company became loss making over the last 3 years. Buying Opportunity • Jan 24
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 18%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£4.07, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. The company became loss making over the last 3 years. Board Change • Jan 06
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Carol Chesney was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 19
First half 2022 earnings released: UK£0.089 loss per share (vs UK£0.15 loss in 1H 2021) The company reported a solid first half result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. First half 2022 results: Revenue: UK£671.2m (up 39% from 1H 2021). Net loss: UK£26.8m (loss narrowed 38% from 1H 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 105 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Nov 09
Price target increased to UK£4.32 Up from UK£4.02, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 8.5% above last closing price of UK£3.99. Stock is up 68% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.11 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.14 last year. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Oct 07
CFO & Director exercised options and sold UK£94k worth of stock On the 4th of October, Richard Pike exercised options to acquire 27k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of UK£3.54 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since December 2020, Richard's direct individual holding has decreased from 461.85k shares to 367.53k. Company insiders have collectively sold UK£1.6m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 18
CEO & Executive Director recently sold UK£958k worth of stock On the 15th of September, Michael Robert Topham sold around 250k shares on-market at roughly UK£3.83 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Michael Robert's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jul 07
CEO & Executive Director exercised options and sold UK£153k worth of stock On the 5th of July, Michael Robert Topham exercised options to acquire 45k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of UK£3.38 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to March 2020, Michael Robert's total compensation was 31% salary and 69% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since September 2020, Michael Robert's direct individual holding has increased from 1.04m shares to 1.08m. Company insiders have collectively sold UK£146k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jun 25
Full year 2021 earnings released: UK£0.14 loss per share (vs UK£0.18 profit in FY 2020) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: UK£1.04b (down 10% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£40.5m (down 189% from profit in FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 74 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Jun 02
Full year 2021 earnings released: UK£0.14 loss per share (vs UK£0.18 profit in FY 2020) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: UK£1.04b (down 10% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£40.5m (down 189% from profit in FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 76 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Jun 02
Price target increased to UK£3.21 Up from UK£3.00, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 7.0% above last closing price of UK£3.01. Stock is up 14% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 26
New 90-day high: UK£2.55 The company is up 11% from its price of UK£2.30 on 27 November 2020. The British market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£2.38 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: UK£2.45 The company is up 5.0% from its price of UK£2.34 on 09 October 2020. The British market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 11% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£15.56 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 15
New 90-day high: UK£2.40 The company is up 7.0% from its price of UK£2.24 on 16 September 2020. The British market is also up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£15.46 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 09
New 90-day high: UK£2.40 The company is up 17% from its price of UK£2.05 on 11 August 2020. The British market is down 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£12.56 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
First half 2021 earnings released: UK£0.15 loss per share The company reported a poor first half result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over expenses. First half 2021 results: Revenue: UK£482.5m (down 18% from 1H 2020). Net loss: UK£43.2m (down 310% from profit in 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 13
Analysts increase EPS estimates to -UK£0.011 The 2021 consensus revenue estimate increased from UK£953.1m to UK£967.4m. Analysts raised their EPS forecasts from -UK£0.019 to -UK£0.011 in 2021. The Commercial Services industry in the United Kingdom is expected to see a 2.2% decline in net income next year. The consensus price target increased from UK£2.48 to UK£2.56. Share price is up 2.4% to UK£2.31 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 02
New 90-day high: UK£2.24 The company is up 12% from its price of UK£2.00 on 03 July 2020. The British market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is flat over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£11.39 per share.