GlobalData Plc Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that GlobalData Plc (LON:DATA) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.0% to UK£1.72 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at UK£0.038, some 42% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at UK£273m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for GlobalData

Following the latest results, GlobalData's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£289.5m in 2024. This would be a modest 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 74% to UK£0.067. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£293.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.086 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£2.70, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values GlobalData at UK£3.48 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£2.31. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that GlobalData's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 39 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while GlobalData's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple GlobalData analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with GlobalData (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.