Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Grafton Group plc's (LON:GFTU) Shares

It's not a stretch to say that Grafton Group plc's (LON:GFTU) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Grafton Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

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Does Growth Match The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Grafton Group's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 18%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 22% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 5.3% per year during the coming three years according to the ten analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Grafton Group is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Grafton Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Grafton Group with six simple checks.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.