Stock Analysis

Why It Might Not Make Sense To Buy Galliford Try Holdings plc (LON:GFRD) For Its Upcoming Dividend

LSE:GFRD
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Galliford Try Holdings plc (LON:GFRD) stock is about to trade ex-dividend in three days. The ex-dividend date is one business day before a company's record date, which is the date on which the company determines which shareholders are entitled to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is of consequence because whenever a stock is bought or sold, the trade takes at least two business day to settle. Therefore, if you purchase Galliford Try Holdings' shares on or after the 9th of November, you won't be eligible to receive the dividend, when it is paid on the 8th of December.

The company's next dividend payment will be UK£0.075 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed UK£0.10 to shareholders. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that Galliford Try Holdings has a trailing yield of 4.6% on the current share price of £2.3. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Galliford Try Holdings's dividend is reliable and sustainable. That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.

View our latest analysis for Galliford Try Holdings

Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. Galliford Try Holdings distributed an unsustainably high 121% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without more sustainable payment behaviour, the dividend looks precarious. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. It distributed 29% of its free cash flow as dividends, a comfortable payout level for most companies.

It's disappointing to see that the dividend was not covered by profits, but cash is more important from a dividend sustainability perspective, and Galliford Try Holdings fortunately did generate enough cash to fund its dividend. Still, if the company repeatedly paid a dividend greater than its profits, we'd be concerned. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

historic-dividend
LSE:GFRD Historic Dividend November 5th 2023

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. Galliford Try Holdings's earnings have collapsed faster than Wile E Coyote's schemes to trap the Road Runner; down a tremendous 40% a year over the past five years.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Galliford Try Holdings's dividend payments per share have declined at 11% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring. It's never nice to see earnings and dividends falling, but at least management has cut the dividend rather than potentially risk the company's health in an attempt to maintain it.

Final Takeaway

Has Galliford Try Holdings got what it takes to maintain its dividend payments? It's not a great combination to see a company with earnings in decline and paying out 121% of its profits, which could imply the dividend may be at risk of being cut in the future. Yet cashflow was much stronger, which makes us wonder if there are some large timing issues in Galliford Try Holdings's cash flows, or perhaps the company has written down some assets aggressively, reducing its income. Bottom line: Galliford Try Holdings has some unfortunate characteristics that we think could lead to sub-optimal outcomes for dividend investors.

With that being said, if you're still considering Galliford Try Holdings as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Galliford Try Holdings you should be aware of.

Generally, we wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see. Here's a curated list of interesting stocks that are strong dividend payers.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Galliford Try Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.