Alumasc Group (AIM:ALU) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALU (£1.45) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£3.25)

ALU fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

ALU Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 55.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 30.7% over the past year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.4% per year for the next 3 years

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 6.9% is not well covered

Does not have a meaningful market cap (£52M)

Alumasc Group Competitors

Epwin Group

AIM:EPWN

UK£110.1m

Norcros

LSE:NXR

UK£168.7m

Samuel Heath & Sons

AIM:HSM

UK£15.2m

Eurocell

LSE:ECEL

UK£153.6m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Alumasc Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£1.45
52 Week High	UK£2.50
52 Week Low	UK£1.30
Beta	0.99
1 Month Change	-4.61%
3 Month Change	-5.84%
1 Year Change	-36.26%
3 Year Change	68.61%
5 Year Change	-16.67%
Change since IPO	-48.76%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 28

If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Alumasc Group (LON:ALU) Presents An Opportunity

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

Sep 09

Alumasc Group (LON:ALU) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At £0.0665

The board of The Alumasc Group plc ( LON:ALU ) has announced that the dividend on 4th of November will be increased to...

Shareholder Returns

	ALU	GB Building	GB Market
7D	0.3%	1.5%	1.6%
1Y	-36.3%	-41.6%	-13.0%

Return vs Industry: ALU exceeded the UK Building industry which returned -41.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALU underperformed the UK Market which returned -13% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALU's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALU volatility
ALU Average Weekly Movement	5.3%
Building Industry Average Movement	5.0%
Market Average Movement	5.5%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: ALU is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALU's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1928	459	G. Hooper	https://www.alumasc.co.uk

The Alumasc Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells building products, systems, and solutions in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Middle East, the Far East, and internationally. The company operates through Water Management, Building Envelope, and Housebuilding Products segments. It offers water management solutions for urban water management in the areas of gutters and downpipes, building drainage, drainage and access covers, and fascia soffit copings under the Alumasc, Skyline, Rainwater, Harmer, Wade, and Gatic brands; building envelope solutions, such as roof waterproofing systems, and green and landscaped garden roofing under the Roof-Pro and Alumasc brands; and housebuilding products under the timloc brand.

Alumasc Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Alumasc Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALU fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£52.28m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£9.61m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£89.38m

5.4x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is ALU overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALU income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£89.38m
Cost of Revenue	UK£56.02m
Gross Profit	UK£33.37m
Other Expenses	UK£23.76m
Earnings	UK£9.61m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.27
Gross Margin	37.33%
Net Profit Margin	10.75%
Debt/Equity Ratio	50.5%

How did ALU perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

6.9%

Current Dividend Yield

37%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALU. This is calculated by dividing ALU's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALU's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£52.28m

ALU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.9x
PEG Ratio	-4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALU PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8x
EPWN Epwin Group	8.2x	4.7%	UK£110.1m
NXR Norcros	6.3x	7.4%	UK£168.7m
HSM Samuel Heath & Sons	10.3x	n/a	UK£15.2m
ECEL Eurocell	6.8x	1.0%	UK£153.6m
ALU Alumasc Group	5.4x	-1.4%	UK£52.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the peer average (8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Building Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the European Building industry average (12.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.4x
Fair PE Ratio	11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALU (£1.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Alumasc Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-1.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALU's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: ALU's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALU's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALU's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (4.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALU's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALU's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.5%)

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Past Performance

How has Alumasc Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

13.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALU has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALU's current net profit margins (10.8%) are higher than last year (9.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALU's earnings have grown by 13.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALU's earnings growth over the past year (30.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (13.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ALU earnings growth over the past year (30.7%) exceeded the Building industry 29.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALU's Return on Equity (37.3%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Alumasc Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALU's short term assets (£40.8M) exceed its short term liabilities (£21.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: ALU's short term assets (£40.8M) exceed its long term liabilities (£22.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALU's net debt to equity ratio (18.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALU's debt to equity ratio has increased from 14.4% to 50.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALU's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (29.8%).

Interest Coverage: ALU's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (21.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Alumasc Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

6.90%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Alumasc Group Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Alumasc Group dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Alumasc Group)	6.9%
Market Bottom 25% (GB)	2.1%
Market Top 25% (GB)	5.9%
Industry Average (Building)	4.2%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Alumasc Group)	7.4%

Notable Dividend: ALU's dividend (6.9%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (2.05%).

High Dividend: ALU's dividend (6.9%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.92%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ALU's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ALU's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (37.3%), ALU's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (275.4%), ALU's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.1yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

G. Hooper (65 yo)

19.75yrs

Tenure

UK£704,000

Compensation

Mr. G. Paul Hooper, B.Sc, MBA, DipM has been the Chief Executive Officer at Alumasc Group Plc since March 2003 and has been its Executive Director since 2003. Mr. Hooper joined Alumasc Group Plc's as Group...

CEO Compensation Analysis

G. Hooper's Compensation vs Alumasc Group Earnings

How has G. Hooper's remuneration changed compared to Alumasc Group's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	UK£704k	UK£282k	UK£10m
Dec 31 2021	n/a	n/a	UK£7m
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	UK£7m
Jun 30 2021	UK£565k	UK£274k	UK£7m
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	UK£6m
Dec 31 2020	n/a	n/a	UK£5m
Sep 30 2020	n/a	n/a	UK£3m
Jun 30 2020	UK£352k	UK£271k	UK£2m
Mar 31 2020	n/a	n/a	UK£2m
Dec 31 2019	n/a	n/a	UK£2m
Sep 30 2019	n/a	n/a	UK£1m
Jun 30 2019	UK£343k	UK£265k	UK£729k
Mar 31 2019	n/a	n/a	UK£1m
Dec 31 2018	n/a	n/a	UK£2m
Sep 30 2018	n/a	n/a	UK£3m
Jun 30 2018	UK£332k	UK£265k	UK£4m
Mar 31 2018	n/a	n/a	UK£5m
Dec 31 2017	n/a	n/a	UK£6m
Sep 30 2017	n/a	n/a	UK£6m
Jun 30 2017	UK£510k	UK£257k	UK£7m
Mar 31 2017	n/a	n/a	UK£6m
Dec 31 2016	n/a	n/a	UK£6m
Sep 30 2016	n/a	n/a	UK£5m
Jun 30 2016	UK£493k	UK£250k	UK£5m

Compensation vs Market: G.'s total compensation ($USD791.91K) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD342.14K).

Compensation vs Earnings: G.'s compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALU's board of directors are considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

AIM:ALU Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Shares	Max Price
09 Feb 22	BuyUK£32,997	G. Hooper	Individual	14,811	UK£2.25
08 Feb 22	BuyUK£29,034	Vijay Thakrar	Individual	13,504	UK£2.15
08 Feb 22	BuyUK£7,838	Michael Leaf	Individual	3,684	UK£2.19

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of ALU?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Public Companies	48,924	0.1%
Private Companies	210,094	0.6%
Employee Share Scheme	247,495	0.7%
Individual Insiders	8,373,029	23.4%
General Public	8,830,700	24.7%
Institutions	18,095,823	50.5%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 69.09% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
12.18%	John McCall	4,359,668	£6.3m	0%	no data
9.08%	AXA Investment Managers S.A.	3,250,000	£4.7m	0%	0.01%
8.54%	Philip Hammond Gwyn	3,057,605	£4.4m	0%	no data
7.17%	Charles Stanley & Co. Ltd, Asset Management Arm	2,565,603	£3.7m	0%	0.04%
4.33%	Unicorn Asset Management Limited	1,550,000	£2.2m	0%	0.27%
3.91%	Chelverton Asset Management Limited	1,400,000	£2.0m	0%	0.13%
2.39%	Castlefield Investment Partners LLP	855,261	£1.2m	0%	0.12%
2.36%	Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division	846,113	£1.2m	0%	0.02%
2.19%	G. Hooper	784,767	£1.1m	0%	no data
2.01%	Fortezza Finanz Ag	720,000	£1.0m	0%	3.77%
1.88%	A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm	673,219	£976.2k	0%	0.01%
1.76%	Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited	629,218	£912.4k	0%	0.02%
1.51%	Teviot Partners LLP	539,252	£781.9k	0%	0.64%
1.49%	HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited	531,909	£771.3k	0%	0.01%
1.37%	Investec Wealth & Investment Limited	491,918	£713.3k	0%	0.01%
1.28%	Octopus Investments Limited	458,502	£664.8k	0%	0.03%
0.97%	HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited	346,313	£502.2k	0%	no data
0.91%	Jarvis Securities plc, Asset Management Arm	325,403	£471.8k	0%	0.03%
0.73%	Ninety One UK Limited	260,000	£377.0k	0%	no data
0.69%	The Alumasc Group plc, ESOP	247,495	£358.9k	0%	no data
0.67%	Consistent Unit Trust Management Company Limited	240,000	£348.0k	0%	0.35%
0.45%	Barclays Investment Solutions Limited	159,371	£231.1k	0%	0.01%
0.43%	SEI Investments Company	152,533	£221.2k	0%	no data
0.42%	James Sharp & Co., Asset Management Arm	150,877	£218.8k	0%	0.03%
0.4%	Brewin Dolphin Limited	143,763	£208.5k	0%	no data

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
ALU	AIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	GB	GBP	Oct 1993
0JL	BST (Boerse-Stuttgart)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	DE	EUR	Oct 1993

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/05 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/10/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2022/06/30