Stock Analysis

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (LON:AML) adds UK£42m to market cap in the past 7 days, though investors from five years ago are still down 89%

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LSE:AML

Some stocks are best avoided. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Spare a thought for those who held Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (LON:AML) for five whole years - as the share price tanked 99%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 55% over the last twelve months. Contrary to the longer term story, the last month has been good for stockholders, with a share price gain of 9.6%. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

The recent uptick of 3.5% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings

Because Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over five years, Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings grew its revenue at 15% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price has averaged a fall of 15% each year, in the same time period. You'd have to assume the market is worried that profits won't come soon enough. While there might be an opportunity here, you'd want to take a close look at the balance sheet strength.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:AML Earnings and Revenue Growth September 5th 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -89% exceeds its share price return of -99%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 14% in the last year, Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings shareholders lost 55%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 14% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings .

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.