Dowlais Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of DWLL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DWLL (£0.58) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£1.97)

Is DWLL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DWLL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DWLL (£0.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DWLL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DWLL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for DWLL. This is calculated by dividing DWLL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is DWLL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£785.68m

DWLL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.8x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does DWLL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for DWLL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.5x
TIFS TI Fluid Systems	0.3x	2.9%	UK£816.3m
ABDP AB Dynamics	4.2x	8.5%	UK£441.9m
JNEO Journeo	0.9x	2.9%	UK£47.1m
CTA CT Automotive Group	0.4x	0.04%	UK£39.7m
DWLL Dowlais Group	0.2x	0.7%	UK£785.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: DWLL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DWLL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Auto Components Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	50.9%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	50.9%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: DWLL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the European Auto Components industry average (0.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DWLL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DWLL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.2x
Fair PS Ratio	0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: DWLL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DWLL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£0.58	UK£0.93 +60.6%	19.9%	UK£1.25	UK£0.62	n/a	10
Sep ’25	UK£0.65	UK£0.94 +44.3%	20.3%	UK£1.25	UK£0.62	n/a	10
Aug ’25	UK£0.63	UK£1.13 +78.0%	23.2%	UK£1.65	UK£0.78	n/a	10
Jul ’25	UK£0.70	UK£1.15 +64.6%	23.4%	UK£1.65	UK£0.78	n/a	10
Jun ’25	UK£0.69	UK£1.17 +68.9%	22.0%	UK£1.65	UK£0.79	n/a	10
May ’25	UK£0.82	UK£1.25 +53.2%	23.8%	UK£1.75	UK£0.79	n/a	10
Apr ’25	UK£0.78	UK£1.25 +59.9%	23.6%	UK£1.75	UK£0.79	n/a	10
Mar ’25	UK£0.87	UK£1.38 +58.3%	27.0%	UK£2.00	UK£0.83	n/a	10
Feb ’25	UK£0.88	UK£1.42 +61.3%	26.6%	UK£2.00	UK£0.83	n/a	9
Jan ’25	UK£1.08	UK£1.44 +34.1%	25.9%	UK£2.00	UK£0.90	n/a	9
Dec ’24	UK£1.02	UK£1.48 +44.7%	23.0%	UK£2.00	UK£0.97	n/a	9
Nov ’24	UK£1.00	UK£1.51 +50.5%	23.2%	UK£2.00	UK£0.97	n/a	9
Oct ’24	UK£1.08	UK£1.62 +50.0%	22.6%	UK£2.20	UK£0.97	n/a	9
Sep ’24	UK£1.10	UK£1.65 +50.0%	23.5%	UK£2.20	UK£0.97	UK£0.65	8
Aug ’24	UK£1.23	UK£1.65 +34.3%	23.3%	UK£2.20	UK£0.97	UK£0.63	8
Jul ’24	UK£1.28	UK£1.69 +31.9%	18.1%	UK£2.20	UK£1.15	UK£0.70	8
Jun ’24	UK£1.27	UK£1.71 +34.7%	18.8%	UK£2.20	UK£1.15	UK£0.69	7
May ’24	UK£1.32	UK£1.71 +29.2%	12.3%	UK£2.00	UK£1.44	UK£0.82	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.