More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For The Blockchain Group's (EPA:ALCPB) Shares After Tumbling 38%

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the The Blockchain Group (EPA:ALCPB) share price has dived 38% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. Nonetheless, the last 30 days have barely left a scratch on the stock's annual performance, which is up a whopping 1,060%.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking Blockchain Group is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 18x, considering almost half the companies in France's Software industry have P/S ratios below 1.7x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

See our latest analysis for Blockchain Group

What Does Blockchain Group's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For instance, Blockchain Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Blockchain Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Blockchain Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 29%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 15% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 5.1% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Blockchain Group's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Blockchain Group's shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Blockchain Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Blockchain Group that we have uncovered.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.