Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) Just Reported Second-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a good week for Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.9% to €3.39. Revenues were €38m, with Valneva reporting some 8.0% below analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Valneva

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Valneva's nine analysts is for revenues of €178.5m in 2024. This would reflect a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 79% to €0.05 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €177.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.028 in 2024. While the analysts have made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.

The consensus price target held steady at €8.63, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Valneva, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €11.00 and the most bearish at €3.90 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Valneva's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 40% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 19% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 32% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Valneva is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Valneva to become unprofitable next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at €8.63, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Valneva. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Valneva going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Valneva you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.