TotalEnergies SE Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

TotalEnergies SE (EPA:TTE) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of US$219b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$8.67, missing estimates by 6.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TotalEnergies after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for TotalEnergies

Following last week's earnings report, TotalEnergies' 19 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$222.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.3% to US$9.65. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$220.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.55 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €70.91. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on TotalEnergies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €98.75 and the most bearish at €59.56 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await TotalEnergies shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that TotalEnergies' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 1.3% annually. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, TotalEnergies is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €70.91, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for TotalEnergies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for TotalEnergies that you should be aware of.

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