Earnings Miss: TotalEnergies SE Missed EPS By 44% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

TotalEnergies SE (EPA:TTE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to €57.90 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenue of US$47b surpassed estimates by 3.0%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 44% below expectations at US$0.96 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for TotalEnergies

Following last week's earnings report, TotalEnergies' 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$202.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to US$8.57. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$203.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.57 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €71.12, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic TotalEnergies analyst has a price target of €90.18 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €61.12. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await TotalEnergies shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.0% per year. It's pretty clear that TotalEnergies' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €71.12, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for TotalEnergies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for TotalEnergies (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

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