SPIE SA (EPA:SPIE) Just Released Its Half-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that SPIE SA (EPA:SPIE) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to €34.96 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €4.7b and statutory earnings per share of €1.44. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for SPIE

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from SPIE's nine analysts is for revenues of €9.91b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 38% to €1.84. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €9.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.94 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €40.25, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on SPIE, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €44.50 and the most bearish at €33.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that SPIE is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that SPIE's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect SPIE to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for SPIE. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €40.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on SPIE. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for SPIE going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for SPIE that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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