Assystem S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Assystem S.A. (EPA:ASY) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.7% to €35.90 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.54, some 68% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €611m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Assystem's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of €643.5m in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 218% to €1.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €656.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.84 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

See our latest analysis for Assystem

The average price target was reduced 12% to €41.67, with the lower revenue forecasts indicating negative sentiment towards Assystem, even though earnings forecasts were unchanged. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Assystem analyst has a price target of €47.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €38.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Assystem'shistorical trends, as the 5.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 6.3% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.1% per year. It's clear that while Assystem's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Assystem going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Assystem is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.