What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Safran (EPA:SAF), so let's see why.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Safran is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.10 = €1.9b ÷ (€46b - €27b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).
So, Safran has an ROCE of 10.0%. In absolute terms, that's a low return but it's around the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 8.7%.
See our latest analysis for Safran
In the above chart we have measured Safran's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Safran.
So How Is Safran's ROCE Trending?
In terms of Safran's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, the ROCE was 17% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Safran to turn into a multi-bagger.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that Safran has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 58%, which we'd consider pretty high. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.
In Conclusion...
In summary, it's unfortunate that Safran is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. In spite of that, the stock has delivered a 37% return to shareholders who held over the last five years. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
Safran could be trading at an attractive price in other respects, so you might find our free intrinsic value estimation on our platform quite valuable.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place
We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.
• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTPA:SAF
Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.
