Kemira Oyj Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Kemira Oyj (HEL:KEMIRA) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €1.28, some 21% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €3.4b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Kemira Oyj

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Kemira Oyj is for revenues of €2.87b in 2024. This implies a chunky 15% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 16% to €1.50. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.34 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target rose 12% to €20.10, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Kemira Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €22.00 and the most bearish at €18.40 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Kemira Oyj is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Kemira Oyj's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kemira Oyj's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kemira Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Kemira Oyj's balance sheet, and whether we think Kemira Oyj is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.