Neste Oyj Just Missed EPS By 76%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Neste Oyj (HEL:NESTE) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to €14.79 in the past week. Results were mixed, with revenues of €5.6b exceeding expectations, even as statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell badly short. Earnings were €0.03 per share, -76% short of analyst expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Neste Oyj

Following the latest results, Neste Oyj's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €22.3b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 108% to €1.19. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €22.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.29 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at €21.14, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Neste Oyj at €36.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €14.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Neste Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 1.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Neste Oyj is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Neste Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Neste Oyj (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.