Kesko Oyj Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Kesko Oyj (HEL:KESKOB) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.7% to €18.30 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of €3.2b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.35, missing estimates by 6.7%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kesko Oyj's five analysts is for revenues of €13.0b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 27% to €1.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €13.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.24 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Kesko Oyj

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €20.13, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Kesko Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €21.00 and the most bearish at €19.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Kesko Oyj's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.8% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Kesko Oyj is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kesko Oyj. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kesko Oyj going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kesko Oyj (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.