Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL

BME:XCOP Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.5b

Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL Valuation

Is XCOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XCOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XCOP (€1.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XCOP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XCOP?

Key metric: As XCOP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XCOP. This is calculated by dividing XCOP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XCOP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsR$2.35b
Market CapR$27.25b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XCOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XCOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
RED Redeia Corporación
15.9x7.0%€9.0b
ANA Acciona
33.5x13.8%€6.4b
ELE Endesa
19.3x8.5%€20.9b
IBE Iberdrola
12.8x-2.6%€82.4b
XCOP Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL
12x7.2%€27.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XCOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XCOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Electric Utilities Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XCOP 12.0xIndustry Avg. 12.6xNo. of Companies10PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XCOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the European Electric Utilities industry average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XCOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XCOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XCOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XCOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.54
€2.10
+36.4%
7.8%€2.54€1.96n/a12
Nov ’25€1.50
€1.98
+31.8%
4.7%€2.17€1.89n/a12
Oct ’25€1.65
€2.08
+26.3%
5.9%€2.33€1.97n/a12
Sep ’25€1.66
€2.02
+21.4%
5.9%€2.29€1.82n/a12
Aug ’25€1.64
€2.07
+26.0%
5.1%€2.28€1.88n/a14
Jul ’25€1.54
€2.06
+34.0%
4.1%€2.26€1.92n/a13
Jun ’25€1.60
€2.23
+39.1%
4.1%€2.43€2.07n/a13
May ’25€1.62
€2.23
+37.5%
3.7%€2.42€2.15n/a11
Apr ’25€1.77
€2.26
+27.9%
2.7%€2.41€2.20n/a12
Mar ’25€1.87
€2.28
+21.7%
2.7%€2.42€2.24n/a11
Feb ’25€1.85
€2.25
+21.8%
3.5%€2.42€2.11n/a9
Jan ’25€1.92
€2.24
+16.8%
3.9%€2.42€2.11n/a9
Dec ’24€1.77
€2.24
+26.6%
3.7%€2.42€2.11n/a10
Nov ’24€1.61
€2.23
+38.4%
6.6%€2.44€1.88€1.509
Oct ’24€1.70
€2.22
+30.6%
6.4%€2.44€1.88€1.659
Sep ’24€1.64
€1.91
+16.5%
13.4%€2.21€1.49€1.669
Aug ’24€1.61
€1.89
+17.3%
11.1%€2.29€1.54€1.649
Jul ’24€1.59
€1.87
+17.8%
11.2%€2.28€1.54€1.549
Jun ’24€1.39
€1.81
+30.1%
12.1%€2.24€1.51€1.609
May ’24€1.43
€1.70
+18.8%
12.0%€2.15€1.47€1.6211
Apr ’24€1.30
€1.60
+23.3%
12.9%€1.99€1.30€1.7710
Mar ’24€1.25
€1.63
+30.2%
13.5%€2.03€1.33€1.8710
Feb ’24€1.41
€1.62
+14.9%
13.9%€2.05€1.32€1.8510
Jan ’24€1.40
€1.60
+14.3%
14.6%€2.04€1.31€1.929
Dec ’23€1.53
€1.55
+1.5%
11.5%€1.99€1.34€1.7710
Nov ’23€1.42
€1.58
+11.0%
9.7%€1.84€1.36€1.6110

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Holaluz-Clidom

€30.2m

Produces and sells electricity and gas.

HLZ

€1.39

7D

-0.4%

1Y

-42.3%

Redeia Corporación

€9.0b

Engages in the electricity transmission, and system operation and management of the transmission network for the electricity system in Spain and internationally.

RED

€16.59

7D

0.4%

1Y

10.2%

Iberdrola

€82.4b

Engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity in Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, France, and Australia.

IBE

€13.33

7D

-0.3%

1Y

19.8%