A Fresh Look at Almirall (BME:ALM) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Upswing

Almirall (BME:ALM) shares have moved slightly higher in the past day, drawing interest from investors curious about recent trading activity and what may be driving sentiment for the Spanish pharmaceutical company. Recent performance trends suggest a mix of caution and optimism.

See our latest analysis for Almirall.

Almirall’s latest 1.9% share price bump comes after a strong few months, building momentum on a year-to-date price return of nearly 41%. For long-term holders, the total shareholder return over the past year stands at an impressive 42.6%. This highlights a steady recovery and growing investor confidence in the company’s outlook.

If you’re interested in healthcare stocks showing robust performance and potential, take the next step and explore See the full list for free.

With shares boasting double-digit gains and trading nearly 16% below the consensus analyst price target, the key question is whether Almirall remains undervalued or if the market has already factored in its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.3% Undervalued

With Almirall’s narrative fair value set above its recent closing price, there is notable optimism shaping analyst expectations. This setup draws a sharp contrast with the current market and hints at a disconnect between price and forward-looking growth drivers.

Strong and sustained expansion of the dermatology portfolio (notably Ebglyss and Ilumetri) is supported by growing prevalence of chronic skin and autoimmune diseases due to demographic shifts. Aggressive pipeline launches and label expansions are expected to drive double-digit net sales growth through 2030.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what bold moves and high-stakes assumptions justify this higher valuation? There is a blueprint to elevated margins, aggressive growth, and a profit forecast that breaks the industry norm. Want to see which financial levers are expected to make the market re-rate this stock? The underlying projections may be even more radical than you think.

Result: Fair Value of $13.3 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued margin pressure and weak U.S. sales could easily undercut these bullish projections. This serves as a reminder to investors that risks remain firmly in play.

Find out about the key risks to this Almirall narrative.

Another View: What Do Earnings Ratios Suggest?

Looking beyond fair value estimates, Almirall is currently trading at a ratio of 118.8 times its earnings. This is much higher than both the European pharmaceuticals average (23x) and its peer group (31.5x). The market’s “fair ratio” for Almirall would be closer to 23.8 times earnings. Such a wide gap signals elevated expectations, but also increases downside risk if growth stalls. Could this premium be justified, or is the risk of a market re-rate higher than it seems?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Almirall Narrative

If you see these results differently or want to shape your own insights, it’s quick and easy to generate a personal narrative using the same data. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Almirall.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Don’t let your search stop with Almirall. Position yourself for smarter investing by uncovering even more stocks reshaping the market through fresh innovation, emerging trends, and untapped value.

• Catch the next wave of sector leaders by seizing the momentum behind these 24 AI penny stocks, which are reshaping industries with artificial intelligence at their core.
• Boost your portfolio’s resilience and earn while you wait with these 16 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, which offer yields above 3% and strong fundamentals.
• Capitalize on untapped growth stories by zeroing in on these 863 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which are trading below their intrinsic value based on future cash flows.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com