Buy Or Sell Opportunity • 21h
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.6% to €13.75. The fair value is estimated to be €11.35, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 37%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.2% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • May 02
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 41% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 150% Cash payout ratio: 141% Minor Risks High level of debt (41% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.3% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: R$2.33 (vs R$1.91 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: R$2.33 (up from R$1.91 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: R$48.7b (up 2.7% from 1Q 2025). Net income: R$9.95b (up 22% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 20% (up from 17% in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 37% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Apr 30
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 169% Cash payout ratio: 152% Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.5% net profit margin). New Risk • Feb 24
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Spanish stocks, typically moving 4.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 169% Cash payout ratio: 152% Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.3% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.5% net profit margin). New Risk • Feb 23
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 169% Cash payout ratio: 152% Dividend yield: 6.3% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 169% Cash payout ratio: 152% Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.5% net profit margin). Announcement • Feb 21
Vale S.A. Announces Resignation of João Luiz Fukunaga from the Board Vale S.A. informed that its Board of Directors on February 20, 2026 received a letter from Mr. João Luiz Fukunaga submitting his resignation from the position of member of the Company's Board of Directors. Mr. João Luiz Fukunaga served as a Board member since 2023. As a result of this resignation and pursuant to the Company's Bylaws, the Board of Directors, with the support of the Company's Nomination and Governance Committee, will evaluate the necessary measures in the coming days and will keep the market duly informed on the matter. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$0.55 (vs US$1.20 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$0.55 (down from US$1.20 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$38.4b (up 15% from FY 2024). Net income: US$2.35b (down 54% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 6.1% (down from 15% in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 22
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 35% to €13.62. The fair value is estimated to be €11.05, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 36%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 4.3% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Jan 14
Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2026 Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2026. Declared Dividend • Dec 08
Dividend of R$3.58 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$3.58. Ex-date: 12th December 2025 Payment date: 4th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 38%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (38% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (145% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 11% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 4.4% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$3.42 (vs R$3.14 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$3.42 (up from R$3.14 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: R$56.7b (up 7.0% from 3Q 2024). Net income: R$14.6b (up 9.2% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 26% (in line with 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Oct 31
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (181% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (14% net profit margin). Announcement • Oct 22
Vale S.A. Provides Production Guidance for the Full Year 2025 Vale S.A. provided production guidance for the full year 2025. For the full year 2025, the company expects iron ore production of 325-335 Mt, pellets production of 31-35 Mt, copper production of 340-370 kt, and nickel production of 160-175 kt. Announcement • Oct 03
Vale S.A. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 30, 2025 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Oct 30, 2025 Announcement • Sep 25
Global Infrastructure Management, LLC completed the acquisition of 70% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3). Global Infrastructure Management, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire 70% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for $1 billion on March 31, 2025. A cash consideration of $1 billion will be paid by Global Infrastructure Management, subject to adjustments between the present date and the actual completion date. Once the transaction is completed, Vale hold a 30% stake and GIP will hold a 70% in Aliança Geração. Vale clarifies that the transaction is subject to customary precedent conditions, including the consent or approval of regulatory bodies.
Tony Del Pino, Carlos Ardila, Carlos Alvarez, and Katherine Sawyer of Latham & Watkins LLP acted as legal advisor to Global Infrastructure Partners in the transaction and the related financing.
Global Infrastructure Management, LLC completed the acquisition of 70% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) on September 25, 2025. Declared Dividend • Aug 06
Dividend of R$1.90 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$1.90. Ex-date: 13th August 2025 Payment date: 3rd September 2025 Dividend yield will be 26%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (181% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 9.7% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 46% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Aug 01
Vale S.A Provides Update on Lawsuit Filed by the Brazilian Federal Attorney General's Office Vale S. A informed that it became aware through the press about a lawsuit filed by the Brazilian Federal Attorney General's Office against Vale in the Regional Federal Court of the 6th Region (TRF6), worth approximately BRL 2 billion, related to the alleged irregular exploitation of the Tamandua Mine, located in Nova Lima, Minas Gerais. The Company informs that it has not been summoned by the Judiciary regarding such lawsuit, and that it will present its statement to the competent court in due course. Vale reiterates its commitment to keeping the market informed of material developments regarding its business. Reported Earnings • Aug 01
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$0.50 (vs US$0.61 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.50 (down from US$0.61 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$8.80b (down 4.9% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$2.12b (down 19% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 24% (down from 28% in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 13% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jul 02
Vale S.A. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 31, 2025 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Jul 31, 2025 Announcement • Jun 05
Vale S.A Appoints Grazielle Parenti as Executive Vice President of Sustainability, Begin on July 7, 2025 Vale S. A announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has approved the appointment of Ms. Grazielle Parenti as Executive Vice President of Sustainability, with her term scheduled to begin on July 7, 2025. Ms. Parenti is an executive with over 30 years of experience in Sustainability, Institutional and Government Relations, International Relations and Communications, with notable performance and professional recognition. She has worked in several industries globally and over the past 3 years, she served as Vice President of Corporate Affairs and Sustainability at Syngenta. Previously, she was part of the executive board of BRF for 4 years, serving as Global Vice President of Corporate Affairs and Sustainability. She was also Director of Government and Corporate Affairs at large organizations such as Mondelez and Diageo. The executive holds a degree in Business Administration from Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo, with an MBA in Marketing. Vale would like to thank Ms. Camilla Lott for her competent and committed performance in the interim position of Executive Vice President of Sustainability. Ms. Lott will resume her regular duties at Vale upon Ms. Parenti's inauguration. Reported Earnings • Apr 27
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$1.91 (vs R$1.93 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$1.91 (down from R$1.93 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: R$47.4b (up 13% from 1Q 2024). Net income: R$8.16b (down 1.5% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 17% (down from 20% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 20% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Apr 25
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (135% cash payout ratio). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to €7.75, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 46% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €11.95 per share. Announcement • Apr 06
Vale S.A. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 24, 2025 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results After-Market on Apr 24, 2025 Announcement • Apr 02
Global Infrastructure Management, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire 70% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for $1 billion. Global Infrastructure Management, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire 70% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for $1 billion on March 31, 2025. A cash consideration of $1 billion will be paid by Global Infrastructure Management, subject to adjustments between the present date and the actual completion date. Once the transaction is completed, Vale hold a 30% stake and GIP will hold a 70% in Aliança Geração.
Tony Del Pino, Carlos Ardila, Carlos Alvarez, and Katherine Sawyer of Latham & Watkins LLP acted as legal advisor to Global Infrastructure Partners in the transaction and the related financing. Announcement • Feb 23
Vale S.A. Approves Dividend, Payable on March 14, 2025 Vale S.A. announced that its board of directors approved the distribution of dividends in the total gross amount of BRL 2.141847479 per share, fixed according to the balance sheet of December 31, 2024, which includes the remuneration established in the company’s shareholder remuneration policy. The record date for payment of dividends to holders of shares issued by Vale and traded on B3 will be March 7, 2025, and the record date for payment of dividends to holders of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will be March 10, 2025. The company’s shares will start trading ex-dividends on B3 and NYSE from March 10, 2025. Payment of dividends will occur on March 14, 2025. New Risk • Feb 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (91% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Feb 21
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$1.44 (vs US$1.89 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$1.44 (down from US$1.89 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$38.1b (down 11% from FY 2023). Net income: US$6.17b (down 25% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 16% (down from 19% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jan 17
An undisclosed buyer acquired 4.05% stake in Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) from Cosan S.A. (BOVESPA:CSAN3) for BRL 9 billion. An undisclosed buyer acquired 4.05% stake in Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) from Cosan S.A. (BOVESPA:CSAN3) for BRL 9 billion on January 16, 2025. Cosan intends to use proceeds to pay down debt.
An undisclosed buyer completed the acquisition of 4.05% stake in Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) from Cosan S.A. (BOVESPA:CSAN3) on January 16, 2025. Announcement • Jan 14
Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025 Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025. Announcement • Jan 09
Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 19, 2025 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Feb 19, 2025 Announcement • Dec 03
Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) acquired 15% stake in Minas-Rio of Vale S.A. from Anglo American plc (LSE:AAL). Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) agreed to acquire 15% stake in Minas-Rio of Vale S.A. from Anglo American plc (LSE:AAL) on February 22, 2024. Under the Transaction’s terms, Vale will contribute Serpentina and $157.5 million in cash to acquire a 15% shareholding in the enlarged Minas-Rio, subject to normal completion adjustments. Vale will also have an option to acquire an additional 15% shareholding in the enlarged Minas-Rio for cash (at fair value calculated at the time of exercise of the option), if and when certain events relating to a future expansion occur. Additionally, depending on the future iron ore prices, there may be an adjustment in the transaction price and the fair value adjustments of this mechanism will be recognized in the Company's income statements accordingly. Upon completion of the transaction, Anglo American Brasil will be an associate of Vale and the investment will be accounted for under the equity method. The combination of Minas-Rio with the scale and quality of the Serpentina endowment also offers considerable expansion opportunities, including the potential to double production towards 60Mtpa. The Transaction is subject to regulatory conditions and is expected to complete in Q4 2024. Rory O'Halloran, Lara Aryani, Cynthia Urda Kassis, Maegen Morrison and Nick Withers of Shearman & Sterling LLP acted as legal advisor to Anglo American plc (LSE:AAL). Morgan Stanley acted as the financial advisor to Anglo American.
Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3)completed the acquisition of 15% stake in Minas-Rio of Vale S.A. from Anglo American plc (LSE:AAL) on December 2, 2024. Anglo American will continue to control, manage and operate Minas-Rio, including any future expansion. Announcement • Nov 29
Vale S.A. Approves New Composition of Audit and Risks Committee Vale S.A. informed that its Board of Directors approved on this date the new composition of Vale’s Audit and Risks Committee. Mrs. Heloísa Belotti Bedicks and Mr. Reinaldo Duarte Castanheira Filho were elected as new members of the Committee. The Committee remains composed entirely of independent members, with a total of 3 members, with Mr. Ollie Oliveira as its coordinator and financial expert. Mr. Paulo Cesar Hartung Gomes and Mr. Douglas James Upton, replaced members of the Committee, continue to perform their regular duties as Board members. Announcement • Oct 16
Vale S.A. Announces Power Resumption in Onça Puma Vale S.A. announced following the press release on October 6, 2024, the company announced that the power supply to the Onça Puma plant was resumed last night, as expected, and the operation ramp-up has started, with normalization of activities expected in the coming days. Announcement • Oct 09
Vale S.A. Announces Executives Changes Vale S. A informed that, on this date, Mr. Marcello Magistrini Spinelli leaves the position of Executive Vice President of Iron Ore Solutions. Marcello joined the Company in 2002, working as an executive in the logistics area, being appointed CEO of VLI Logística in 2011. In May 2019, he took over as Executive Vice President of Ferrous and had an important contribution in the resumption of iron ore operations in a challenging time for the company. He also played a relevant role in positioning Vale as partner of choice for customers in their decarbonization pathways. Vale thanks Marcello for his dedication and results achieved during his time in office. Mr. Rogério Nogueira, the Company’s current Director of Product and Business Development, was appointed interim Executive Vice-President of Iron Ore Solutions, starting on October 9th and ending until December 31st, 2024. Announcement • Oct 07
Vale S.A. Reports Interruption of Operations at the on A Puma Nickel Plant Vale S.A. announced a temporary interruption of operations at the On a Puma nickel plant in Ouril ndia do Norte, Par. The interruption occurred due to damage to the local electricity company's transmission network after strong winds on October 5th, 2024. There were no incidents reported regarding the safety of employees, neighboring communities or Vale's assets at the site. The electricity transmission network is expected to be restored by October 15, 2024, according to information from the operator in charge. Vale preliminarily estimates an impact of 1.5 to 2.0 kt on nickel production in fourth quarter of 2024, which does not imply a change in the guidance provided by the company for 2024, of 153-168 kt. The Company will continue to assess the impacts of the interruption on nickel production at On a Puma and the measures necessary to resume the affected operational processes. Vale will keep the market informed about material developments at the On a Puma operation. New Risk • Sep 27
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Spanish stocks, typically moving 4.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (99% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.0% average weekly change). Announcement • Aug 27
Vale S.A. Announces Appointment of Gustavo Pimenta as CEO Vale S.A. announced Gustavo Pimenta as the company's next CEO. The executive was unanimously elected by the Board of Directors, after a rigorous selection process supported by an international headhunting company, in compliance with Vale's Bylaws, corporate policies, the Board's internal regulations and applicable legislation. Gustavo Pimenta is an executive with global experience in the financial, energy and mining sectors, and with a career developed over 20 years in Brazil, the United States and Europe. In 2021, he assumed the position of executive Vice-president of Finance and Investor Relations at Vale S.A. He was also responsible for the Procurement and Energy & Decarbonization areas. Before joining Vale, Pimenta was an executive at AES for 12 years, accumulating extensive experience as Global CFO, director of Planning and Strategy and Vice President of Performance and Services at the company. He also served as Vice President of Strategy and M&A at Citigroup in New York. He has a degree in Economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais and a master's degree in finance and economics from Funda o Get lio Vargas. The transition process will follow the schedule already published by the Company. Announcement • Aug 14
Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) completed the acquisition of remaining 45% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A. Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) entered into an agreement to acquire the remaining 45% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A. for BRL 2.7 billion on March 27, 2024. The transaction is subject to the approval by Cemig GT’s Shareholders’ Meeting and customary precedent conditions, including the approval by competent authorities. Upon closing Vale will hold 100% of Aliança Energia’s capital. Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. acted as financial advisor to Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3).
Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) completed the acquisition of remaining 45% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A. on August 13, 2024. As part of closing, all the customary precedent conditions were fully met. Declared Dividend • Jul 31
Dividend of R$2.09 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$2.09. Ex-date: 5th August 2024 Payment date: 4th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 30%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (45% earnings payout ratio) but not adequately covered by cash flows (99% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 12% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 50% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.65 (vs US$0.22 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.65 (up from US$0.22 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$9.92b (flat on 2Q 2023). Net income: US$2.77b (up 190% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 28% (up from 9.6% in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 17% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jul 04
Vale S.A. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 25, 2024 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results After-Market on Jul 25, 2024 New Risk • May 31
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (19% net profit margin). Announcement • May 01
Manara Minerals Investment Company completed the acquisition of 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3). Manara Minerals Investment Company entered into binding agreement to acquire 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for $2.5 billion on July 27, 2023. In a related transaction, along with sale of 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business Vale also sold additional 3% stake in Energy Transition Metals business to Engine No. 1 for a combined purchase price of $3.4 billion. Under the terms of agreements, the total consideration of $3.4 billion will be paid in cash to VBM at the closing of the transaction, subject to customary adjustments. Post-closing of the transaction, Manara Minerals Investment Company will own 10% and Engine No. 1 will own 3%. As a part of acquisition, the Company will retain control over VBM and this agreement shall be accounted for as an equity transaction with any result being recognized in shareholder’s equity upon closing of the transaction.
The transactions are subject to customary conditions precedent, including the approval of relevant regulatory authorities, including the approval of the relevant antitrust and are expected to close in first quarter of 2024. As of April 19, 2024 The closing of the transaction is expected to take place in 2024, subject to conditions precedent, including the approval of the usual authorities. These transaction will see strategic investments as a major milestone in our path to accelerate accretive growth in our Energy Transition Metals business platform, creating significant long-term value to all of our stakeholders. BofA Securities, Inc. acted as financial advisor to Manara Minerals Investment Company. Marc Kushner, Stewart Worthy, Lawrence Ward and Wells Parker of Dorsey & Whitney LLP acted as legal advisor to Manara Minerals Investment Company. Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton Consultores em Direito Estrangeiro acted as legal advisor to Vale S.A.
Manara Minerals Investment Company completed the acquisition of 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) on April 30, 2024. Regulatory approvals received. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: R$1.93 (vs R$2.14 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: R$1.93 (down from R$2.14 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: R$41.9b (down 4.4% from 1Q 2023). Net income: R$8.29b (down 13% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 20% (down from 22% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Apr 06
Vale S.A. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 24, 2024 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results After-Market on Apr 24, 2024 New Risk • Apr 04
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (19% net profit margin). Upcoming Dividend • Mar 05
Upcoming dividend of R$2.74 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 March 2024. Payment date: 19 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 59% and the cash payout ratio is 76%. Trailing yield: 6.4%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.4%). Declared Dividend • Feb 28
Dividend of R$2.74 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$2.74. Ex-date: 12th March 2024 Payment date: 19th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 28%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (38% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (50% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 30% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: R$9.15 (vs R$18.57 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: R$9.15 (down from R$18.57 in FY 2022). Revenue: R$208.1b (down 8.1% from FY 2022). Net income: R$39.9b (down 54% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 19% (down from 38% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jan 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (23% net profit margin). Announcement • Jan 16
Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2024 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results After-Market on Jan 30, 2024 Announcement • Jan 13
Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 26, 2024 Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 26, 2024. Announcement • Dec 06
Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2023, 2024, 2026 and 2030+ Vale S. A provided production guidance for the year 2023, 2024, 2026 and 2030+. For the year 2023, the company expected production of iron ore of approx. 315 million tons, Pellets & briquettes of approx. 37 million tons, Nickel of approx. 165kt, and Copper of approx. 325 kt.For the year 2024, the company expected production of iron ore of 310 million tons to 320 million tons, Pellets & briquettes of 38 million tons to 42 million tons, Nickel of 160kt to 175 kt, and Copper of 320kt to 355 kt.For the year 2026, the company expects production of iron ore of 340 million tons to 360 million tons, Pellets & briquettes of 50 million tons to 55 million tons, Nickel of 210 kt to 230 kt, and Copper of 375kt to 410 kt.For the year 2030+, the company expects production of iron ore of more than 360 million tons, Pellets & briquettes of approx. 100 million tons, Nickel of more than 300 kt, and Copper of approx. 900kt. Announcement • Nov 25
Vale Sa Announces English Court of Appeal Dismisses Application for Permission to Appeal Against the Court's Jurisdiction Vale SA announced that, in a decision published on November 24, 2023, the English Court of Appeal has dismissed Vale’s application for permission to appeal against the Court's jurisdiction to hear the contribution claim brought against the Company by BHP. It is important to clarify that the merits of this claim have not yet been heard or determined. In the contribution claim, BHP is seeking a pro rata financial share from the Company in the event that BHP is ordered to make a payment in the class action lawsuit filed in the UK over the collapse of Samarco’s Fundão dam in 2015. Vale, as a shareholder of Samarco, believes that the solutions created by the agreements in Brazil, in particular the "TTAC", are capable of addressing the claims in the foreign lawsuit. The Company also reaffirms its commitment to repair the damage caused by the dam collapse in accordance with the agreements signed with the Brazilian authorities for this purpose. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 15
Upcoming dividend of R$2.33 per share at 6.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 November 2023. Payment date: 08 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 69% and the cash payout ratio is 79%. Trailing yield: 6.9%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (8.6%). Announcement • Oct 28
Vale S.A. Announces Approval of Distribution, Scheduled to Be Paid December 1, 2023 Vale S.A. announced that the Board of Directors has approved the distribution of USD 2.0 billion in dividends scheduled to be paid December 1, 2023. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.66 (vs US$0.95 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.66 (down from US$0.95 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$10.6b (up 10.0% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$2.84b (down 34% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 27% (down from 45% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year. Announcement • Oct 07
Vale S.A. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 26, 2023 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results After-Market on Oct 26, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Aug 07
Upcoming dividend of R$1.92 per share at 7.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 August 2023. Payment date: 01 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 17% and the cash payout ratio is 94%. Trailing yield: 7.5%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.0%). In line with average of industry peers (8.2%). New Risk • Jul 31
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 28% Last year net profit margin: 41% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 10% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (28% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.20 (vs US$0.83 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.20 (down from US$0.83 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$9.67b (down 7.9% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$892.0m (down 77% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 9.2% (down from 37% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to decline by 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 26
Vale Reportedly Close to Deal to Divest 10% of Base Metals Business Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3)’ is nearing a deal to sell a 10% stake in its $25 billion base metals unit to Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund and a Saudi mining company, The Wall Street Journal's Julie Steinberg, Ben Dummett, and Summer Said report. According to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, and state-owned mining company Ma'aden, would pay $2.5 billion for the roughly 10% stake, and a deal could be announced as soon as this week. Announcement • Jul 08
Vale S.A. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 27, 2023 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results After-Market on Jul 27, 2023 Announcement • Jul 01
Vale S.A. Appoints Manuel Lino Silva De Sousa Oliveira as Lead Independent Director Vale SA informed that Mr. Manuel Lino Silva de Sousa Oliveira was appointed as Lead Independent Director of Vale's Board of Directors. Mr. Ollie Oliveira has been an independent Board member of the Company since 2021, with recognized performance on several international Boards in the industry and more than 35 years of experience in corporate finance and strategy, mainly in the mining sector. Composition of the Audit and Risk Committee: For a better dedication to the LID role, Mr. Ollie Oliveira leaves the coordination of Vale's Audit and Risks Committee, remaining as a member and technical specialist of the referred advisory body of the Board of Directors. Mrs. Vera Marie Inkster, an independent Board member, assumes the coordinator position of Vale's Audit and Risk Committee. Therefore, Audit and Risks Committee continues to be composed of the same three members and is fully independent. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: R$2.14 (vs R$4.79 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: R$2.14 (down from R$4.79 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: R$29.5b (down 48% from 1Q 2022). Net income: R$9.52b (down 59% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 32% (down from 41% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 1.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.3% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 07
Upcoming dividend of R$1.83 per share at 4.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 March 2023. Payment date: 22 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 21% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.5%. Lower than top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (7.8%). Reported Earnings • Feb 19
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$4.05 (vs US$4.79 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$4.05 (down from US$4.79 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$43.8b (down 17% from FY 2021). Net income: US$16.7b (down 30% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 38% (down from 46% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.6% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 66% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 10
GM Reportedly Looks to Deepen Mining Ties with Stake in Brazil’s Vale General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) has discussed taking a small stake in Brazilian miner Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3)’s base metals unit, a business that mines and processes nickel and other metals crucial to building electric vehicle batteries, according to people familiar with the matter. Vale said in December it would consider selling up to a 10% stake in the business, without disclosing a potential sale price. A stake of that size could be valued at as much as $2 billion, according to some of the people. GM’s interest comes as auto makers increasingly seek out supply agreements and closer partnerships with mining and metals companies as they jostle for the world’s limited supply of metals they need to build the batteries needed in the EVs they hope to sell in coming years. The sale process is in the early stages and has attracted some of the world’s biggest sovereign-wealth and pension funds, including from the Middle East and North America, according to people familiar with the matter. Announcement • Jan 18
Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 16, 2023 Vale S.A. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results After-Market on Feb 16, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Aug 05
Upcoming dividend of R$3.57 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 August 2022. Payment date: 01 September 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and the cash payout ratio is 96%. Trailing yield: 23%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (9.6%). Reported Earnings • Jul 30
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: R$6.43 (vs R$7.87 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: R$6.43 (down from R$7.87 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: R$55.0b (down 37% from 2Q 2021). Net income: R$20.2b (down 50% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 37% (down from 46% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 2.2% compared to a 25% growth forecast for the industry in Spain. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 88% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Jun 08
Now 20% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be €21.56, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 31% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 94%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 9.4% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 26% per annum over the same time period. 
