Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A.

BME:CAF Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.1b

Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles Valuation

Is CAF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAF (€31.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€83.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAF?

Key metric: As CAF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CAF. This is calculated by dividing CAF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CAF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.3x
Earnings€97.16m
Market Cap€1.09b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.1x
TLGO Talgo
19.1x29.5%€413.0m
ENO Elecnor
36.6x-29.2%€1.7b
FDR Fluidra
35.5x24.7%€4.6b
AZK Azkoyen
9xn/a€152.7m
CAF Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles
11.3x18.8%€1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the peer average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Machinery Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CAF 11.3xIndustry Avg. 17.4xNo. of Companies29PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the European Machinery industry average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.3x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CAF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CAF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€31.95
€45.95
+43.8%
12.3%€53.50€34.00n/a10
Nov ’25€36.85
€46.02
+24.9%
11.2%€54.80€38.00n/a10
Oct ’25€35.15
€45.71
+30.0%
10.2%€53.50€38.00n/a10
Sep ’25€34.65
€45.71
+31.9%
10.2%€53.50€38.00n/a10
Aug ’25€35.65
€45.71
+28.2%
10.2%€53.50€38.00n/a10
Jul ’25€35.90
€44.91
+25.1%
11.5%€53.50€36.00n/a10
Jun ’25€34.25
€44.05
+28.6%
9.7%€51.70€36.00n/a10
May ’25€32.15
€44.03
+36.9%
9.0%€51.70€36.00n/a10
Apr ’25€33.80
€43.63
+29.1%
9.9%€51.70€36.00n/a10
Mar ’25€33.20
€43.63
+31.4%
9.9%€51.70€36.00n/a10
Feb ’25€33.00
€43.02
+30.3%
10.7%€51.70€34.00n/a10
Jan ’25€32.60
€42.70
+31.0%
11.8%€52.70€34.00n/a10
Dec ’24€31.90
€42.17
+32.2%
13.3%€51.70€34.00n/a10
Nov ’24€28.05
€41.15
+46.7%
12.0%€50.50€34.00€36.859
Oct ’24€29.60
€40.89
+38.1%
11.8%€50.50€34.00€35.159
Sep ’24€33.20
€40.67
+22.5%
12.8%€50.50€32.00€34.659
Aug ’24€31.15
€40.33
+29.5%
12.9%€50.50€32.00€35.659
Jul ’24€30.75
€39.33
+27.9%
15.1%€50.50€32.00€35.909
Jun ’24€29.65
€38.76
+30.7%
14.4%€50.50€32.00€34.259
May ’24€28.15
€38.84
+38.0%
13.9%€50.50€33.00€32.159
Apr ’24€25.60
€38.16
+49.1%
15.4%€50.50€30.00€33.809
Mar ’24€27.90
€38.16
+36.8%
15.4%€50.50€30.00€33.209
Feb ’24€30.00
€37.99
+26.6%
17.3%€51.00€27.40€33.009
Jan ’24€26.50
€37.71
+42.3%
17.7%€51.00€27.40€32.609
Dec ’23€28.45
€38.96
+36.9%
18.9%€51.00€27.40€31.9010
Nov ’23€26.90
€39.83
+48.0%
17.3%€51.00€27.40€28.0510

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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