Earnings Beat: Gestamp Automoción, S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Investors in Gestamp Automoción, S.A. (BME:GEST) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.3% to close at €3.33 following the release of its interim results. Gestamp Automoción missed revenue estimates by 2.7%, coming in at€5.8b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.13 beat expectations, coming in 8.3% ahead of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Gestamp Automoción's eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €11.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 32% to €0.37. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €12.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.36 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Gestamp Automoción

The average price target was steady at €3.36even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Gestamp Automoción, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €4.17 and the most bearish at €2.20 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Gestamp Automoción's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.5% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Gestamp Automoción's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €3.36, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gestamp Automoción. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Gestamp Automoción analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Gestamp Automoción you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.