New Risk • May 31
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 71% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (71% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م2.37b market cap, or US$45.3m). Board Change • May 14
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 9 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (9 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Declared Dividend • Oct 23
Dividend increased to ج.م0.75 Dividend of ج.م0.75 is 36% higher than last year. Ex-date: 5th November 2024 Payment date: 7th November 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (62% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Earnings per share has grown by 16% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Sep 17
Alexandria Flour Mills, Annual General Meeting, Oct 08, 2024 Alexandria Flour Mills, Annual General Meeting, Oct 08, 2024, at 15:00 Egypt Standard Time. Location: cairo Egypt New Risk • Sep 05
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 88% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (88% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م908.1m market cap, or US$18.7m). Reported Earnings • Sep 04
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: ج.م304.8k (down 100% from FY 2023). Net income: ج.م55.5k (down 100% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 18% (up from 16% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 24% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م24.38, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 14.6x. Average trailing P/E is 7x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 58% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 28
Now 32% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 11% to ج.م24.38. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م18.52, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 39%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ج.م29.62, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 22.3x. Average trailing P/E is 9x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 176% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 26% After last week's 26% share price decline to ج.م27.31, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 20.6x. Average trailing P/E is 10x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 125% over the past three years. New Risk • Mar 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Egyptian stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 2.1% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م1.03b market cap, or US$33.4m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 19
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 24% After last week's 24% share price gain to ج.م26.01, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 19.6x. Average trailing P/E is 12x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 83% over the past three years. New Risk • Nov 26
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended March 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 2.1% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported March 2023 fiscal period end). Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م822.6m market cap, or US$26.6m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 23
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to ج.م25.01, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 18.9x. Average trailing P/E is 9x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 166% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 01
Upcoming dividend of ج.م0.55 per share at 2.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 November 2023. Payment date: 12 November 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and the cash payout ratio is 87%. Trailing yield: 2.7%. Lower than top quartile of Egyptian dividend payers (7.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.5%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 19
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ج.م21.22, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 16x. Average trailing P/E is 8x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 133% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 30
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ج.م17.58, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 14.5x. Average trailing P/E is 10x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 96% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 15
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to ج.م11.01, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 9.1x. Average trailing P/E is 10x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 121% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ج.م13.93, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 11.5x. Average trailing P/E is 11x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 80% over the past three years. Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 9 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (9 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 09
Upcoming dividend of ج.م0.40 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 November 2022. Payment date: 20 November 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.9%. Lower than top quartile of Egyptian dividend payers (10%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.3%). Reported Earnings • Sep 22
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: ج.م220.5m (up 19% from FY 2021). Net income: ج.م37.0m (up 104% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 17% (up from 9.8% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 9 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (9 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 28
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to ج.م10.17, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 16.8x. Average trailing P/E is 12x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total loss to shareholders of 22% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 24
Inaugural dividend of ج.م0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 01 December 2021. Payment date: 05 December 2021. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in October 2018. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 4.7%. Reported Earnings • Oct 06
Full year 2021 earnings released The company reported a solid full year result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: ج.م185.5m (up 302% from FY 2020). Net income: ج.م18.1m (up 124% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 9.8% (down from 18% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 27
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م18.57, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 72.4x. Average trailing P/E is 14x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 43% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 03
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to ج.م14.25, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 55.6x. Average trailing P/E is 14x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 8.0% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 10
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to ج.م12.20, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 44x. Average trailing P/E is 12x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total loss to shareholders of 21% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 23
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 17% share price decline to ج.م10.97, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 39.6x. Average trailing P/E is 12x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total loss to shareholders of 39% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 04
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to ج.م12.90, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 46.5x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 55x. This compares to an average P/E of 12x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 19%. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ج.م0.049 (vs ج.م0.056 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a soft second quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ج.م11.5m (up 28% from 2Q 2020). Net income: ج.م1.61m (down 12% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 14% (down from 21% in 2Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 03
New 90-day high: ج.م14.13 The company is up 39% from its price of ج.م10.14 on 04 November 2020. The Egyptian market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Food industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to ج.م13.47, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 47.4x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 41.2x. This compares to an average P/E of 14x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 49%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 14
New 90-day high: ج.م13.47 The company is up 26% from its price of ج.م10.72 on 15 October 2020. The Egyptian market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Food industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to ج.م12.70, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 44.7x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 37.5x. This compares to an average P/E of 13x in the Food industry in Egypt. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 54%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 10
New 90-day high: ج.م11.69 The company is up 21% from its price of ج.م9.67 on 10 September 2020. The Egyptian market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Food industry, which is flat over the same period. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 19
Upcoming Dividend of ج.م0.18 Per Share Will be paid on the 30th of November to those who are registered shareholders by the 26th of November. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in October 2018. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 5.9%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 11
New 90-day high: ج.م11.36 The company is up 3.0% from its price of ج.م11.05 on 13 July 2020. The Egyptian market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Food industry, which is down 4.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 21
New 90-day high: ج.م11.26 The company is up 11% from its price of ج.م10.18 on 23 June 2020. The Egyptian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Food industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period.