Stock Analysis

Is DFDS (CPH:DFDS) Using Too Much Debt?

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CPSE:DFDS
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Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that DFDS A/S (CPH:DFDS) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

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What Is DFDS's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2022, DFDS had kr.11.4b of debt, up from kr.9.90b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had kr.1.45b in cash, and so its net debt is kr.9.96b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
CPSE:DFDS Debt to Equity History December 9th 2022

How Healthy Is DFDS' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that DFDS had liabilities of kr.13.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of kr.8.14b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had kr.1.45b in cash and kr.4.37b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling kr.15.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's kr.13.7b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

DFDS has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.6 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 6.9 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. It is well worth noting that DFDS's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 94% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine DFDS's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, DFDS recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 84% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

DFDS's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. In contrast, our confidence was undermined by its apparent struggle to handle its total liabilities. Considering this range of data points, we think DFDS is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with DFDS .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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Find out whether DFDS is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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