Scandinavian Tobacco Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of STG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

STG (DKK94) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (DKK431.49)

Is STG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of STG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: STG (DKK94) is trading below our estimate of fair value (DKK431.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: STG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for STG?

Key metric: As STG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for STG. This is calculated by dividing STG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is STG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7.5x
Earnings	DKK 986.70m
Market Cap	DKK 7.41b

STG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7x
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does STG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for STG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15x
UIE UIE	8.2x	n/a	DKK 9.4b
SCHO Aktieselskabet Schouw	12.8x	12.3%	DKK 12.1b
RBREW Royal Unibrew	17x	3.7%	DKK 25.1b
TPB Turning Point Brands	22x	14.0%	US$1.0b
STG Scandinavian Tobacco Group	7.5x	3.8%	DKK 7.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: STG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the peer average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does STG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: STG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (12.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is STG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

STG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.5x
Fair PE Ratio	10.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: STG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst STG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	DKK 94.00	DKK 108.50 +15.4%	6.0%	DKK 115.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	2
Dec ’25	DKK 95.00	DKK 108.50 +14.2%	6.0%	DKK 115.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	DKK 104.20	DKK 110.67 +6.2%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	3
Oct ’25	DKK 103.00	DKK 110.67 +7.4%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	3
Sep ’25	DKK 106.60	DKK 109.00 +2.3%	4.9%	DKK 115.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	3
Aug ’25	DKK 101.60	DKK 109.00 +7.3%	4.9%	DKK 115.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	3
Jul ’25	DKK 98.40	DKK 110.67 +12.5%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	3
Jun ’25	DKK 97.10	DKK 114.00 +17.4%	10.3%	DKK 130.00	DKK 102.00	n/a	3
Mar ’25	DKK 127.10	DKK 132.50 +4.2%	1.9%	DKK 135.00	DKK 130.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	DKK 122.40	DKK 132.50 +8.3%	1.9%	DKK 135.00	DKK 130.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	DKK 117.30	DKK 127.50 +8.7%	2.0%	DKK 130.00	DKK 125.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	DKK 122.10	DKK 127.50 +4.4%	2.0%	DKK 130.00	DKK 125.00	DKK 95.00	2
Nov ’24	DKK 104.90	DKK 127.50 +21.5%	2.0%	DKK 130.00	DKK 125.00	DKK 104.20	2
Oct ’24	DKK 107.50	DKK 123.33 +14.7%	5.1%	DKK 130.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 103.00	3
Sep ’24	DKK 106.10	DKK 126.67 +19.4%	6.7%	DKK 135.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 106.60	3
Aug ’24	DKK 119.00	DKK 136.25 +14.5%	13.3%	DKK 165.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 101.60	4
Jul ’24	DKK 113.50	DKK 136.25 +20.0%	13.3%	DKK 165.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 98.40	4
Jun ’24	DKK 114.20	DKK 136.25 +19.3%	13.3%	DKK 165.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 97.10	4
May ’24	DKK 133.60	DKK 138.33 +3.5%	14.9%	DKK 165.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 112.80	3
Apr ’24	DKK 136.20	DKK 138.33 +1.6%	14.9%	DKK 165.00	DKK 115.00	DKK 123.80	3
Mar ’24	DKK 119.50	DKK 130.00 +8.8%	20.6%	DKK 165.00	DKK 100.00	DKK 127.10	3
Feb ’24	DKK 121.50	DKK 133.75 +10.1%	18.0%	DKK 165.00	DKK 100.00	DKK 122.40	4
Jan ’24	DKK 122.10	DKK 140.00 +14.7%	11.8%	DKK 165.00	DKK 125.00	DKK 117.30	4
Dec ’23	DKK 126.20	DKK 140.00 +10.9%	11.8%	DKK 165.00	DKK 125.00	DKK 122.10	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/22 01:39
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is covered by 7 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Andreas Lundberg	ABG Sundal Collier
Niklas Ekman	Carnegie Investment Bank AB
Gerry Gallagher	Deutsche Bank