Guangdong Investment Limited

DB:GUG Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.9b

Guangdong Investment Valuation

Is GUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GUG (€0.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€1.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GUG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GUG?

Key metric: As GUG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GUG. This is calculated by dividing GUG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GUG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11x
EarningsHK$2.89b
Market CapHK$31.84b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.6x
FHW Fernheizwerk Neukölln
21.4xn/a€52.9m
LEC Lechwerke
25.8xn/a€2.5b
WWG Gelsenwasser
13.5xn/a€1.8b
MNV6 Mainova
33.7xn/a€1.9b
GUG Guangdong Investment
11x13.6%€31.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the peer average (23.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Water Utilities Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GUG 11.0xIndustry Avg. 17.0xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the Global Water Utilities industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11x
Fair PE Ratio29.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GUG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.56
€0.66
+18.3%
13.0%€0.80€0.58n/a4
Nov ’25€0.57
€0.63
+10.8%
13.8%€0.78€0.57n/a4
Oct ’25€0.57
€0.60
+5.5%
15.5%€0.76€0.53n/a4
Sep ’25€0.49
€0.65
+32.1%
26.7%€0.95€0.53n/a4
Aug ’25€0.46
€0.55
+18.4%
39.4%€0.96€0.32n/a5
Jul ’25€0.51
€0.55
+8.2%
39.4%€0.96€0.32n/a5
Jun ’25€0.49
€0.55
+11.2%
39.4%€0.96€0.32n/a5
May ’25€0.47
€0.56
+18.5%
39.4%€0.98€0.33n/a5
Apr ’25€0.40
€0.55
+37.7%
40.0%€0.97€0.32n/a5
Mar ’25€0.56
€0.87
+56.9%
21.6%€1.18€0.64n/a5
Feb ’25€0.51
€0.87
+71.1%
21.6%€1.18€0.64n/a5
Jan ’25€0.61
€0.89
+47.3%
17.7%€1.15€0.67n/a5
Dec ’24€0.65
€1.11
+70.0%
33.9%€1.89€0.76n/a6
Nov ’24€0.62
€1.11
+79.2%
33.9%€1.89€0.76€0.576
Oct ’24€0.69
€1.15
+67.4%
28.8%€1.85€0.86€0.576
Sep ’24€0.70
€1.23
+75.7%
27.7%€1.82€0.85€0.496
Aug ’24€0.75
€1.37
+83.9%
20.4%€1.85€1.07€0.466
Jul ’24€0.77
€1.37
+77.3%
20.4%€1.85€1.07€0.516
Jun ’24€0.78
€1.37
+75.0%
20.4%€1.85€1.07€0.496
May ’24€0.85
€1.35
+58.6%
19.4%€1.81€1.09€0.476
Apr ’24€0.93
€1.35
+45.7%
19.6%€1.86€1.07€0.407
Mar ’24€0.93
€1.35
+45.7%
19.6%€1.86€1.07€0.567
Feb ’24€1.00
€1.35
+36.1%
19.6%€1.86€1.07€0.517
Jan ’24€0.94
€1.29
+37.1%
27.0%€1.90€0.92€0.617
Dec ’23€0.87
€1.40
+61.9%
28.7%€2.01€0.97€0.657
Nov ’23€0.69
€1.40
+102.1%
28.7%€2.01€0.97€0.627

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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