Sichuan Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, invests in, constructs, operates, and manages expressway infrastructure projects in Sichuan Province, the People’s Republic of China.
The last earnings update was 50 days ago.
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:EXF1 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:EXF1 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Sichuan Expressway's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Sichuan Expressway's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Sichuan Expressway's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Sichuan Expressway's earnings are expected to grow by 4.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Sichuan Expressway's revenue is expected to grow by 1.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Sichuan Expressway's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Sichuan Expressway's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Sichuan Expressway is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Sichuan Expressway's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Sichuan Expressway's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
Low level of unsold assets.
Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.5x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Yongyi Gan has been General Manager of Sichuan Expressway Company Limited since November 16, 2012 and has been its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Gan served as a Deputy General Manager of Sichuan Expressway Company Limited. He has extensive and concrete experience in the construction and management of roads and bridges. He served as the deputy general manager of Sichuan Road and Bridge Company Limited. He has been Vice Chairman and Executive Director at Sichuan Expressway Company Limited since March 28, 2013. Mr. Gan graduated from Chongqing Jiaotong Institute and holds the title of senior engineer. Mr. Gan graduated from Chongqing Jiaotong College with a bachelor degree in civil engineering of road and bridge transportation and from Sichuan University with a master's degree in management and engineering.
Yongyi's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year whilst earnings fell less than 20%.
Yongyi's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Sichuan Expressway management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Deputy GM & Executive Director
CFO & Financial Controller
Deputy General Manager
Deputy GM & Executive Director
Secretary to the Board
Secretary of Discipline Inspection Commission
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Sichuan Expressway board of directors is about average.
Sichuan Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, invests in, constructs, operates, and manages expressway infrastructure projects in Sichuan Province, the People’s Republic of China. It operates through five segments: Toll Operation, Construction Contracts, Sale of Products, Property Development, and Others. The Toll Operation segment engages in the operation of expressways and a high-grade toll bridge in Mainland China. The Construction Contracts segment provides construction and upgradation services under the service concession arrangements and construction contracts. The Sale of Products segment is involved in the operation of gas stations along expressways; and the sale of petrochemicals and other oil products. The Property Development segment invests in and develops properties in Mainland China. The Others segment engages in the advertising and finance leasing operations, as well as rents properties along expressways. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Chengdu, the People’s Republic of China.
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