Orange Polska S.A.

DB:TPA1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.3b

Orange Polska Valuation

Is TPA1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TPA1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TPA1 (€1.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€9.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPA1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TPA1?

Key metric: As TPA1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TPA1. This is calculated by dividing TPA1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TPA1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.7x
Earningszł784.00m
Market Capzł9.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TPA1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TPA1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.9x
O2D Telefónica Deutschland Holding
22.7x-11.4%€6.2b
O2D Telefónica Deutschland Holding
26.5x-41.1%€7.2b
E4C ecotel communication ag
50.9x64.5%€47.1m
DTE Deutsche Telekom
23.5x18.8%€140.8b
TPA1 Orange Polska
12.7x9.5%€10.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TPA1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (30.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TPA1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Telecom Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TPA1 12.7xIndustry Avg. 18.6xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TPA1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the European Telecom industry average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TPA1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TPA1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio23.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TPA1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TPA1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.75
€2.13
+21.9%
14.5%€2.47€1.41n/a8
Nov ’25€1.74
€2.16
+24.2%
13.7%€2.48€1.41n/a9
Oct ’25€2.00
€2.16
+8.1%
13.9%€2.50€1.42n/a9
Sep ’25€1.99
€2.16
+8.7%
13.9%€2.50€1.42n/a9
Aug ’25€1.81
€2.13
+17.8%
13.2%€2.44€1.42n/a9
Jul ’25€1.77
€2.16
+22.2%
13.8%€2.45€1.43n/a8
Jun ’25€1.84
€2.16
+17.3%
13.8%€2.45€1.43n/a8
May ’25€1.80
€2.11
+17.2%
13.5%€2.42€1.41n/a8
Apr ’25€1.83
€2.10
+14.3%
13.5%€2.31€1.42n/a7
Mar ’25€1.86
€2.04
+9.8%
13.7%€2.29€1.41n/a7
Feb ’25€1.93
€1.97
+2.1%
13.9%€2.25€1.39n/a7
Jan ’25€1.93
€1.94
+0.2%
13.1%€2.24€1.41n/a7
Dec ’24€1.80
€1.94
+7.5%
13.1%€2.24€1.41n/a7
Nov ’24€1.83
€1.87
+2.6%
13.0%€2.15€1.37€1.747
Oct ’24€1.57
€1.80
+14.7%
10.7%€2.08€1.36€2.008
Sep ’24€1.56
€1.80
+15.4%
10.7%€2.08€1.36€1.998
Aug ’24€1.62
€1.82
+12.0%
10.6%€2.10€1.38€1.818
Jul ’24€1.58
€1.69
+6.8%
8.8%€1.82€1.35€1.778
Jun ’24€1.58
€1.69
+6.9%
8.8%€1.82€1.35€1.848
May ’24€1.56
€1.61
+3.2%
8.6%€1.75€1.30€1.808
Apr ’24€1.41
€1.61
+14.6%
8.6%€1.75€1.30€1.838
Mar ’24€1.41
€1.55
+9.9%
12.1%€1.75€1.28€1.869
Feb ’24€1.47
€1.55
+5.9%
12.1%€1.75€1.28€1.939
Jan ’24€1.39
€1.55
+11.8%
12.1%€1.75€1.28€1.939
Dec ’23€1.34
€1.54
+14.5%
12.9%€1.75€1.21€1.809
Nov ’23€1.27
€1.53
+20.7%
14.3%€1.85€1.19€1.839

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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