Lumentum Holdings Inc.

DB:LU2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.6b

Lumentum Holdings Valuation

Is LU2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LU2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LU2 (€79.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€262.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LU2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LU2?

Key metric: As LU2 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LU2. This is calculated by dividing LU2's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LU2's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.2x
SalesUS$1.38b
Market CapUS$5.84b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LU2's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LU2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2x
ADV Adtran Networks
2.2x4.6%€1.0b
FEW Funkwerk
0.9xn/a€154.3m
CEK CeoTronics
1.6x10.2%€47.5m
301165 Ruijie Networks
3.4x16.0%CN¥41.3b
LU2 Lumentum Holdings
4.2x19.5%€5.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LU2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the peer average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LU2's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Communications Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LU2 4.2xIndustry Avg. 1.0xNo. of Companies11PS012345+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LU2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the European Communications industry average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LU2's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LU2 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.2x
Fair PS Ratio1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LU2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LU2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€79.90
€86.17
+7.9%
17.8%€109.65€57.21n/a16
Dec ’25€79.38
€82.48
+3.9%
22.7%€109.57€48.59n/a16
Nov ’25€58.56
€55.87
-4.6%
18.2%€73.88€36.94n/a16
Oct ’25€56.60
€53.87
-4.8%
18.4%€72.90€36.45n/a16
Sep ’25€50.94
€53.87
+5.8%
18.4%€72.90€36.45n/a16
Aug ’25€47.83
€51.09
+6.8%
20.7%€73.82€35.06n/a16
Jul ’25€47.51
€49.78
+4.8%
19.6%€73.58€34.95n/a16
Jun ’25€39.65
€49.78
+25.5%
19.6%€73.58€34.95n/a16
May ’25€40.38
€51.51
+27.6%
18.9%€74.98€37.49n/a17
Apr ’25€44.16
€52.10
+18.0%
19.6%€74.48€37.24n/a17
Mar ’25€44.72
€51.60
+15.4%
19.8%€74.28€37.14n/a17
Feb ’25€50.80
€50.27
-1.0%
16.1%€63.94€36.90n/a17
Jan ’25€47.80
€47.33
-1.0%
15.4%€62.77€36.23n/a17
Dec ’24€38.90
€45.23
+16.3%
12.4%€54.62€36.41€79.3816
Nov ’24€36.34
€47.88
+31.8%
14.6%€65.48€37.80€58.5616
Oct ’24€42.38
€49.42
+16.6%
12.6%€58.85€36.78€56.6016
Sep ’24€49.62
€49.42
-0.4%
12.6%€58.85€36.78€50.9416
Aug ’24€47.28
€49.81
+5.4%
14.5%€60.62€36.19€47.8316
Jul ’24€52.65
€49.92
-5.2%
15.1%€60.99€36.41€47.5116
Jun ’24€49.86
€48.86
-2.0%
14.5%€59.65€36.43€39.6516
May ’24€43.34
€53.98
+24.6%
18.2%€72.93€36.46€40.3816
Apr ’24€48.43
€65.36
+35.0%
10.6%€77.44€52.55€44.1615
Mar ’24€49.74
€66.66
+34.0%
10.3%€78.66€53.37€44.7216
Feb ’24€54.65
€66.81
+22.2%
11.9%€82.83€55.22€50.8016
Jan ’24€47.69
€70.87
+48.6%
13.8%€91.35€58.39€47.8016
Dec ’23€51.61
€74.10
+43.6%
11.8%€92.15€58.90€38.9015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 12:50
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/28
Annual Earnings2024/06/29

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Thomas O'MalleyBarclays
Karl AckermanBNP Paribas Exane