ON Semiconductor Corporation

DB:XS4 Stock Report

Market Cap: €27.9b

ON Semiconductor Valuation

Is XS4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XS4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XS4 (€64.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€170.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XS4 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XS4?

Key metric: As XS4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XS4. This is calculated by dividing XS4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XS4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.6x
EarningsUS$1.76b
Market CapUS$29.15b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XS4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XS4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
IFX Infineon Technologies
22.3x17.0%€39.0b
ELG Elmos Semiconductor
10.5x4.1%€1.1b
GFS GlobalFoundries
31.9x22.5%US$23.2b
STMPA STMicroelectronics
10.6x-0.2%€21.0b
XS4 ON Semiconductor
16.9x14.9%€29.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XS4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XS4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Semiconductor Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XS4 16.6xIndustry Avg. 14.8xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XS4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the European Semiconductor industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XS4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XS4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.6x
Fair PE Ratio22.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XS4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XS4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€64.73
€82.59
+27.6%
12.7%€102.75€52.82n/a29
Nov ’25€65.05
€79.20
+21.7%
13.1%€98.95€50.86n/a27
Oct ’25€64.30
€78.69
+22.4%
13.3%€96.40€54.56n/a27
Sep ’25€69.90
€78.69
+12.6%
13.3%€96.40€54.56n/a27
Aug ’25€66.97
€80.14
+19.7%
13.2%€98.05€55.50n/a27
Jul ’25€63.83
€77.78
+21.9%
13.5%€96.53€51.05n/a28
Jun ’25€65.60
€77.78
+18.6%
13.5%€96.53€51.05n/a28
May ’25€65.89
€78.29
+18.8%
13.1%€97.43€51.52n/a28
Apr ’25€67.97
€82.51
+21.4%
11.4%€106.78€55.71n/a28
Mar ’25€72.74
€82.51
+13.4%
11.4%€106.78€55.71n/a28
Feb ’25€64.30
€81.13
+26.2%
12.3%€101.33€55.27n/a28
Jan ’25€76.34
€79.50
+4.1%
14.1%€100.76€54.96n/a28
Dec ’24€65.48
€79.89
+22.0%
14.5%€101.44€55.33n/a27
Nov ’24€60.85
€83.29
+36.9%
16.0%€113.20€56.69€65.0526
Oct ’24€87.73
€111.24
+26.8%
8.7%€124.92€89.75€64.3026
Sep ’24€91.95
€111.24
+21.0%
8.7%€124.92€89.75€69.9026
Aug ’24€98.27
€108.45
+10.4%
9.9%€122.92€82.86€66.9726
Jul ’24€86.64
€88.13
+1.7%
8.1%€100.78€73.30€63.8326
Jun ’24€81.27
€88.59
+9.0%
7.6%€102.12€74.27€65.6026
May ’24€62.73
€84.03
+34.0%
9.3%€100.27€67.45€65.8926
Apr ’24€75.15
€86.68
+15.3%
8.3%€99.55€70.16€67.9726
Mar ’24€73.40
€85.31
+16.2%
8.6%€99.53€69.20€72.7427
Feb ’24€70.66
€69.32
-1.9%
8.1%€78.36€50.70€64.3028
Jan ’24€57.25
€69.61
+21.6%
7.9%€78.08€51.74€76.3428
Dec ’23€69.99
€71.22
+1.8%
7.9%€80.16€53.12€65.4828
Nov ’23€62.36
€74.31
+19.2%
7.7%€82.00€55.68€60.8527

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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