Semtech Valuation

Is SM2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SM2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SM2 (€60.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€49.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SM2 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SM2?

Key metric: As SM2 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SM2. This is calculated by dividing SM2's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SM2's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio5.7x
SalesUS$851.21m
Market CapUS$4.82b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SM2's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SM2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.6x
ELG Elmos Semiconductor
1.7x5.4%€1.1b
SIS First Sensor
5xn/a€618.3m
IFX Infineon Technologies
2.7x7.1%€40.0b
WAF Siltronic
1x9.2%€1.4b
SM2 Semtech
5.7x18.8%€4.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SM2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.7x) compared to the peer average (2.6x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SM2's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Semiconductor Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
M5Z Manz
0.2x8.9%US$48.21m
D0Q Sondrel (Holdings)
0.2xn/aUS$2.02m
No more companies available in this PS range
SM2 5.7xIndustry Avg. 1.7xNo. of Companies2PS012345+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SM2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.7x) compared to the European Semiconductor industry average (1.7x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SM2's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SM2 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5.7x
Fair PS Ratio3.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SM2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SM2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€60.50
€69.39
+14.7%
10.2%€81.13€57.27n/a10
Nov ’25€40.51
€50.20
+23.9%
17.0%€72.23€41.53n/a10
Oct ’25€40.65
€50.20
+23.5%
17.0%€72.23€41.53n/a10
Sep ’25€39.20
€50.20
+28.1%
17.0%€72.23€41.53n/a10
Aug ’25€29.33
€47.96
+63.5%
9.4%€55.55€41.66n/a10
Jul ’25€27.66
€47.96
+73.4%
9.4%€55.55€41.66n/a10
Jun ’25€35.56
€40.61
+14.2%
16.2%€55.31€33.18n/a10
May ’25€34.37
€38.19
+11.1%
10.5%€46.98€33.82n/a10
Apr ’25€25.80
€37.38
+44.9%
12.5%€46.55€28.86n/a10
Mar ’25€19.60
€28.73
+46.6%
17.6%€38.43€22.88n/a10
Feb ’25€18.40
€28.73
+56.2%
17.6%€38.43€22.88n/a10
Jan ’25€20.00
€28.25
+41.2%
20.6%€38.90€20.37n/a10
Dec ’24€15.00
€30.04
+100.3%
19.3%€42.26€22.05€60.5010
Nov ’24€13.10
€31.06
+137.1%
18.4%€43.43€23.60€40.5110
Oct ’24€24.60
€33.52
+36.2%
19.3%€46.05€28.19€40.659
Sep ’24€24.00
€35.26
+46.9%
23.1%€50.62€25.31€39.2010
Aug ’24€26.40
€35.26
+33.5%
23.1%€50.62€25.31€29.3310
Jul ’24€23.20
€35.32
+52.2%
22.3%€49.16€25.49€27.6610
Jun ’24€20.20
€36.76
+82.0%
28.6%€57.62€23.24€35.569
May ’24€17.90
€36.56
+104.3%
26.6%€56.51€25.52€34.379
Apr ’24€23.20
€38.28
+65.0%
25.1%€56.85€25.67€25.808
Mar ’24€29.00
€40.38
+39.2%
22.7%€59.85€30.40€19.608
Feb ’24€30.20
€40.38
+33.7%
22.7%€59.85€30.40€18.408
Jan ’24€26.60
€40.38
+51.8%
22.7%€59.85€30.40€20.008
Dec ’23€29.40
€40.38
+37.3%
22.7%€59.85€30.40€15.008

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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