Breakeven Date Change • Dec 30
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Manz no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €3.03m in 2026. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €10.0m in 2026. New Risk • Nov 10
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 20% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€28m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€80k net loss in 2 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (20% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€59.2m market cap, or US$63.5m). New Risk • Sep 06
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 2 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: €20m Forecast net loss in 2 years: €80k This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€28m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€80k net loss in 2 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.9% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€45.3m market cap, or US$50.3m). Breakeven Date Change • Sep 06
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026 The 2 analysts covering Manz previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €3.03m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 91% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Breakeven Date Change • Aug 12
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The 3 analysts covering Manz expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €1.26m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 105% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: €0.97 loss per share (vs €0.36 profit in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: €0.97 loss per share (down from €0.36 profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue: €67.9m (down 3.9% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: €8.31m (down 366% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.6% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 29% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 56% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 24
Harro Höfliger Verpackungsmaschinen GmbH completed the acquisition of Manz Hungary Gépgyártó Korlátolt Felelosségu Társaság from Manz AG (XTRA:M5Z). Harro Höfliger Verpackungsmaschinen GmbH agreed to acquire Manz Hungary Gépgyártó Korlátolt Felelosségu Társaság from Manz AG (XTRA:M5Z) for HUF 3.108 billion on May 8, 2024. The HUF 3.108 billion received from the transaction will additionally strengthen Manz AG's liquidity. subject to contractually agreed conditions precedent and possible official approvals . A corresponding agreement was signed today by both parties. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024.
Harro Höfliger Verpackungsmaschinen GmbH completed the acquisition of Manz Hungary Gépgyártó Korlátolt Felelosségu Társaság from Manz AG (XTRA:M5Z) on July 24, 2024. Breakeven Date Change • Jul 01
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2025 The 3 analysts covering Manz previously expected the company to break even in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 16% to 2024. The company is expected to make a profit of €1.33m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 77% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. New Risk • Jun 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of German stocks, typically moving 7.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€32m). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.0% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€64.1m market cap, or US$69.8m). Reported Earnings • May 26
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: €0.28 loss per share (improved from €1.50 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: €280.6m (up 1.2% from FY 2022). Net loss: €2.39m (loss narrowed 80% from FY 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.2% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 48% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • May 23
Manz AG to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Final Results on May 23, 2024 Manz AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 final results at 9:00 AM, Central European Standard Time on May 23, 2024 New Risk • Jan 31
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€47m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€47m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€88.5m market cap, or US$96.0m). New Risk • Jan 20
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €91.4m (US$99.6m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€47m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€91.4m market cap, or US$99.6m). Announcement • Jan 05
Manz AG, Annual General Meeting, Jul 02, 2024 Manz AG, Annual General Meeting, Jul 02, 2024. Location: Filharmonie Filderstadt Germany Price Target Changed • Nov 10
Price target decreased by 17% to €16.53 Down from €19.97, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 51% above last closing price of €10.94. Stock is down 57% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.25 next year compared to a net loss per share of €1.50 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: €0.077 loss per share (vs €0.64 profit in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: €0.077 loss per share (down from €0.64 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: €60.8m (down 14% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: €654.0k (down 112% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.8% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 03
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to €8.16, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 73% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €9.19 per share. New Risk • Oct 20
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €89.7m (US$95.0m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.7x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (66% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.5% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€89.7m market cap, or US$95.0m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 19
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to €11.22, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 61% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €9.10 per share. New Risk • Oct 18
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of German stocks, typically moving 6.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.7x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (66% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.2% average weekly change). Buying Opportunity • Oct 05
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 27%. The fair value is estimated to be €17.68, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 20% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 178% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Sep 19
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 30%. The fair value is estimated to be €17.28, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 20% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 178% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Aug 04
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). High level of non-cash earnings (66% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (10% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 03
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.36 (vs €0.38 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.36 (up from €0.38 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: €72.4m (up 2.6% from 2Q 2022). Net income: €3.12m (up €6.04m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: €1.50 loss per share (improved from €2.89 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: €293.3m (up 23% from FY 2021). Net loss: €12.1m (loss narrowed 46% from FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 139%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.9% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 88 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buying Opportunity • Jan 03
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 24%. The fair value is estimated to be €25.83, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 2.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €35.33 Down from €46.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of €25.50. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.34 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.89 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.64 (vs €0.72 loss in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.64 (up from €0.72 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €70.2m (up 34% from 3Q 2021). Net income: €5.33m (up €10.9m from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.6% (up from net loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.6% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: €0.38 loss per share (vs €0.059 loss in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: €0.38 loss per share (down from €0.059 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: €75.0m (up 14% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: €2.92m (loss widened €2.46m from 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 46%, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: €0.86 loss per share (down from €1.33 profit in 1Q 2021). Revenue: €64.0m (up 23% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: €6.70m (down 165% from profit in 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 43%, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to €58.50 Down from €63.83, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 52% above last closing price of €38.60. Stock is down 33% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.69 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.89 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: €0.72 loss per share (vs €0.22 profit in 3Q 2020) The company reported a soft third quarter result with weaker earnings and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €54.1m (up 8.1% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: €5.59m (down 424% from profit in 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 85% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 05
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 23% share price gain to €55.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34x. Average forward P/E is 34x in the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders of 95% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €90.42 per share. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: €0.059 loss per share (vs €0.087 profit in 2Q 2020) The company reported a soft second quarter result with weaker earnings and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €65.6m (up 3.9% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: €460.0k (down 169% from profit in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 85% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Aug 08
Price target increased to €66.00 Up from €59.00, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of €57.20. Stock is up 162% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Jul 26
Price target increased to €62.33 Up from €55.18, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 8.3% below last closing price of €68.00. Stock is up 222% over the past year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 26
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 24% share price gain to €70.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 55x. Average forward P/E is 37x in the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders of 103% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €79.77 per share. Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €1.33 (vs €0.21 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a decent first quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €52.2m (down 18% from 1Q 2020). Net income: €10.3m (up €8.60m from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 20% (up from 2.6% in 1Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 83% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Apr 02
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.44 (vs €1.43 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €249.7m (down 7.3% from FY 2019). Net income: €3.43m (up €14.5m from FY 2019). Profit margin: 1.4% (up from net loss in FY 2019). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 20
New 90-day high: €46.50 The company is up 63% from its price of €28.60 on 22 October 2020. The German market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Semiconductor industry, which is up 31% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €177 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 16
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €42.80, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 77.3x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 66.3x. This compares to an average P/E of 80x in the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 22%. Price Target Changed • Jan 05
Price target raised to €39.28 Up from €34.42, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is close to the current share price of €37.60. As of last close, the stock is up 67% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 05
New 90-day high: €34.90 The company is up 20% from its price of €29.00 on 07 October 2020. The German market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Semiconductor industry, which is up 24% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €241 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 05
Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints Revenue missed analyst estimates by 21%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.2%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 42%, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany. Reported Earnings • Nov 05
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.22 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: €51.5m (down 24% from 3Q 2019). Net income: €1.72m (up €7.51m from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 3.4% (up from net loss in 3Q 2019). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 05
Price target raised to €34.42 Up from €30.62, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. The new target price is 15% above the current share price of €30.00. As of last close, the stock is up 58% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Oct 03
Price target raised to €30.62 Up from €26.98, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is close to the current share price of €29.30. As of last close, the stock is up 69% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 29
New 90-day high: €23.90 The company is up 37% from its price of €17.40 on 01 July 2020. The German market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Semiconductor industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €197 per share.