Earnings Miss: AIXTRON SE Missed EPS By 9.4% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on AIXTRON SE (ETR:AIXA), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.0% short of analyst estimates at €156m, and statutory earnings of €0.27 per share missed forecasts by 9.4%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for AIXTRON

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 13 analysts covering AIXTRON, is for revenues of €603.3m in 2025. This implies a small 2.8% reduction in AIXTRON's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €1.02, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €638.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.08 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 11% to €19.76. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on AIXTRON, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €30.00 and the most bearish at €12.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 22% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AIXTRON's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AIXTRON. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for AIXTRON going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - AIXTRON has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.