AIXTRON SE (ETR:AIXA) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A €35.43 Price Target

There's been a notable change in appetite for AIXTRON SE (ETR:AIXA) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 16% to €27.24. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €630m and statutory earnings per share of €1.29 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that AIXTRON is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for AIXTRON

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from AIXTRON's 13 analysts is for revenues of €680.7m in 2024. This would reflect a solid 8.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.2% to €1.32. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €695.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.43 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 9.9% to €35.43, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic AIXTRON analyst has a price target of €50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €26.90. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AIXTRON's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like AIXTRON is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AIXTRON's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AIXTRON going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for AIXTRON (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.