Ceconomy AG

DB:CEC Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.5b

Ceconomy Valuation

Is CEC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CEC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CEC (€3.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€7.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CEC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CEC?

Key metric: As CEC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CEC. This is calculated by dividing CEC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CEC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.4x
Earnings€135.00m
Market Cap€1.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CEC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CEC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.2x
HBH HORNBACH Holding KGaA
7.5x6.8%€1.3b
HBM HORNBACH Baumarkt
25.4xn/a€1.8b
FIE Fielmann Group
23.3x18.9%€3.3b
ZAL Zalando
36.5x21.9%€7.4b
CEC Ceconomy
11.4x22.4%€1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CEC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the peer average (23.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CEC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CEC 11.4xIndustry Avg. 15.7xNo. of Companies11PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CEC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CEC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CEC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.4x
Fair PE Ratio15.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CEC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CEC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.16
€3.06
-3.3%
10.2%€3.50€2.60n/a7
Nov ’25€2.94
€3.06
+4.1%
10.2%€3.50€2.60n/a7
Oct ’25€3.15
€3.00
-4.8%
10.9%€3.50€2.60n/a8
Sep ’25€2.65
€3.00
+13.1%
10.9%€3.50€2.60n/a8
Aug ’25€2.72
€2.94
+7.9%
12.5%€3.50€2.50n/a8
Jul ’25€2.97
€2.93
-1.3%
13.4%€3.50€2.50n/a7
Jun ’25€3.08
€2.76
-10.5%
11.1%€3.40€2.50n/a7
May ’25€2.16
€2.27
+5.0%
14.7%€2.80€1.90n/a8
Apr ’25€1.84
€2.27
+23.6%
14.7%€2.80€1.90n/a8
Mar ’25€2.00
€2.34
+16.9%
15.9%€2.90€1.90n/a9
Feb ’25€2.24
€2.34
+4.6%
15.9%€2.90€1.90n/a9
Jan ’25€2.48
€2.34
-5.7%
15.9%€2.90€1.90n/a9
Dec ’24€2.18
€2.28
+4.4%
16.0%€2.90€1.80n/a9
Nov ’24€1.79
€2.28
+27.2%
16.0%€2.90€1.80€2.949
Oct ’24€2.00
€2.37
+18.3%
17.8%€3.10€1.80€3.159
Sep ’24€2.38
€2.37
-0.3%
17.9%€3.10€1.80€2.659
Aug ’24€2.69
€2.35
-12.6%
17.0%€3.10€1.80€2.729
Jul ’24€2.26
€2.27
+0.5%
15.6%€2.70€1.80€2.979
Jun ’24€2.21
€2.07
-6.3%
18.5%€2.70€1.60€3.089
May ’24€2.78
€1.90
-31.7%
17.9%€2.70€1.60€2.169
Apr ’24€2.44
€1.80
-26.4%
9.4%€2.10€1.60€1.849
Mar ’24€2.53
€1.80
-28.7%
9.4%€2.10€1.60€2.009
Feb ’24€2.24
€1.71
-23.8%
13.1%€2.00€1.20€2.249
Jan ’24€1.88
€2.09
+11.0%
61.8%€5.90€1.20€2.4810
Dec ’23€2.26
€2.30
+1.6%
61.3%€5.90€1.20€2.1810
Nov ’23€1.71
€2.30
+34.7%
61.3%€5.90€1.20€1.7910

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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