American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

DB:AFG Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.1b

American Eagle Outfitters Valuation

Is AFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFG (€16) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€42.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFG?

Key metric: As AFG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AFG. This is calculated by dividing AFG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AFG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.2x
EarningsUS$231.35m
Market CapUS$3.20b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.2x
ZAL Zalando
40.5x19.8%€8.3b
FIE Fielmann Group
24.9x18.9%€3.5b
HBM HORNBACH Baumarkt
25.8xn/a€1.9b
DOU Douglas
25.6x25.4%€2.2b
AFG American Eagle Outfitters
14.2x19.1%€3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (29.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AFG 14.2xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies12PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.2x
Fair PE Ratio15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€16.00
€20.17
+26.0%
19.2%€30.30€14.20n/a10
Dec ’25€17.50
€22.19
+26.8%
19.5%€32.10€16.05n/a10
Nov ’25€18.00
€21.93
+21.8%
18.0%€30.68€15.34n/a10
Oct ’25€20.00
€21.93
+9.6%
18.0%€30.68€15.34n/a10
Sep ’25€18.70
€22.08
+18.1%
17.3%€30.76€16.29n/a10
Aug ’25€20.20
€23.84
+18.0%
19.1%€32.21€16.57n/a10
Jul ’25€18.50
€23.63
+27.7%
18.7%€32.26€16.59n/a11
Jun ’25€20.40
€23.63
+15.8%
18.7%€32.26€16.59n/a11
May ’25€23.00
€23.81
+3.5%
17.9%€32.64€17.72n/a12
Apr ’25€23.01
€22.83
-0.8%
16.1%€32.04€17.39n/a12
Mar ’25€21.80
€21.30
-2.3%
15.0%€26.83€14.80n/a12
Feb ’25€18.20
€19.58
+7.6%
17.2%€24.87€11.98n/a13
Jan ’25€19.10
€16.77
-12.2%
17.2%€22.15€12.00€15.6012
Dec ’24€17.30
€16.38
-5.3%
18.1%€22.04€11.94€17.5012
Nov ’24€16.36
€16.25
-0.7%
20.4%€22.55€11.75€18.0012
Oct ’24€15.38
€16.25
+5.7%
20.4%€22.55€11.75€20.0012
Sep ’24€15.51
€13.96
-10.0%
21.1%€20.42€9.75€18.7012
Aug ’24€12.94
€11.67
-9.8%
21.5%€16.39€8.19€20.2011
Jul ’24€10.81
€11.40
+5.5%
18.5%€16.84€8.42€18.5011
Jun ’24€9.47
€11.40
+20.4%
18.5%€16.84€8.42€20.4011
May ’24€12.12
€14.42
+19.0%
12.6%€17.53€11.07€23.0011
Apr ’24€11.98
€14.42
+20.4%
12.6%€17.53€11.07€23.0111
Mar ’24€13.44
€15.06
+12.1%
15.6%€20.59€11.23€21.8011
Feb ’24€14.67
€14.98
+2.1%
15.7%€20.25€11.04€18.2011
Jan ’24€12.98
€15.66
+20.7%
18.0%€22.26€11.61€19.1011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 03:58
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/11/02
Annual Earnings2024/02/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. is covered by 51 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jeff BlackAvondale Partners
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Matthew McClintockBarclays