Earnings Miss: Zalando SE Missed EPS By 20% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Zalando SE (ETR:ZAL) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to €26.64 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €2.4b, although statutory earnings per share came in 20% below what the analysts expected, at €0.17 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Zalando

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Zalando's 26 analysts is for revenues of €11.0b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 7.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 34% to €1.07. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.08 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €35.10, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Zalando at €50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €19.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Zalando's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Zalando's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at €35.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Zalando analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.