DB:WX6

Stock Analysis Report

National Health Investors

Executive Summary

Incorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc.

Rewards

Trading at 51.8% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 7.98% per year

Earnings have grown 6.8% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

Established dividend payer and slightly overvalued.


Similar Companies

Universal Health Services

NYSE:UHS

Share Price & News

How has National Health Investors's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: WX6 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

2.0%

WX6

2.8%

DE REITs

0.07%

DE Market


1 Year Return

8.6%

WX6

34.4%

DE REITs

14.8%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: WX6 underperformed the German REITs industry which returned 32.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: WX6 underperformed the German Market which returned 17.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

WX6IndustryMarket
7 Day2.0%2.8%0.07%
30 Day4.9%4.7%1.4%
90 Day0%6.0%6.1%
1 Year14.4%8.6%39.1%34.4%18.4%14.8%
3 Year26.0%7.4%41.4%21.3%17.4%7.0%
5 Year46.2%12.4%44.7%13.6%27.9%10.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is National Health Investors's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is National Health Investors undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: WX6 (€74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€153.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WX6 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: WX6 is poor value based on its PE Ratio (23.2x) compared to the REITs industry average (8.9x).

PE vs Market: WX6 is poor value based on its PE Ratio (23.2x) compared to the German market (20.6x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: WX6 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: WX6 is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.5x) compared to the DE REITs industry average (1.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is National Health Investors forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

8.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: WX6's forecast earnings growth (8% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: WX6's earnings (8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (13.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: WX6's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: WX6's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (4.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: WX6's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if WX6's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has National Health Investors performed over the past 5 years?

6.8%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: WX6 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: WX6's current net profit margins (50.2%) are lower than last year (53.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: WX6's earnings have grown by 6.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: WX6's earnings growth over the past year (0.3%) is below its 5-year average (6.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: WX6 earnings growth over the past year (0.3%) underperformed the REITs industry 96.7%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: WX6's Return on Equity (10.6%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is National Health Investors's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: WX6 has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: WX6's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.1x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: WX6's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if WX6 has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: WX6 reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if WX6 has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: WX6 has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if WX6 has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is National Health Investors's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

5.01%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company5.0%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.5%industryaverage2.9%forecastin3Years5.4%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: WX6's dividend (5%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.38%).

High Dividend: WX6's dividend (5%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (3.53%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: WX6's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: WX6's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: At its current payout ratio (75.4%), WX6's payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: WX6's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be thoroughly covered by earnings (1.6% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of National Health Investors's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

D. Mendelsohn (57yo)

4.4yrs

Tenure

US$1,800,008

Compensation

Mr. D. Eric Mendelsohn serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President at National Health Investors Inc. since October 05, 2015. Previously, Mr. Mendelsohn served as an Interim Chief Executive Officer  ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: D.'s total compensation ($USD1.80M) is about average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD2.07M).

Compensation vs Earnings: D.'s compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

3.4yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: WX6's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

24.0yrs

Average Tenure

70.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: WX6's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 24 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Sell€68,08725 Sep 19
James Jobe
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares900
Max Price€75.65
Sell€147,43715 Aug 19
Kevin Pascoe
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Investment Officer
Chief Investment Officer
Shares2,000
Max Price€74.00
Sell€81,32026 Feb 19
Robert McCabe
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares1,181
Max Price€68.86

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3%.


Management Team

  • Kristi Gaines (47yo)

    Chief Credit Officer

    • Tenure: 9.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$787.95k
  • Kevin Pascoe (38yo)

    Chief Investment Officer

    • Tenure: 2.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$922.95k
  • Kimberly Ouimet

    Director of Compliance

    • Tenure: 5yrs
  • D. Mendelsohn (57yo)

    President & CEO

    • Tenure: 4.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.80m
  • Susan Sidwell

    Corporate Secretary

    • John Spaid (59yo)

      Executive VP of Finance & Chief Financial Officer

      • Tenure: 3.8yrs
      • Compensation: US$647.34k
    • Michelle Kelly

      Senior Vice President of Investments

      • Tenure: 2.3yrs
    • Colleen Schaller

      Real Estate Transaction Manager

      • Tenure: 0.4yrs
    • Ron Reel (63yo)

      Chief Accounting Officer

      • Tenure: 0.2yrs

    Board Members

    • Andy Adams (73yo)

      Chairman of the Board

      • Tenure: 29yrs
      • Compensation: US$154.02k
    • Rob McCabe (68yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 18.9yrs
      • Compensation: US$164.02k
    • Robert Webb (74yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 29yrs
      • Compensation: US$154.02k
    • Jimmy Jobe (58yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 6.8yrs
      • Compensation: US$154.02k

    Company Information

    National Health Investors, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: National Health Investors, Inc.
    • Ticker: WX6
    • Exchange: DB
    • Founded: 1991
    • Industry: Health Care REITs
    • Sector: Real Estate
    • Market Cap: US$3.688b
    • Listing Market Cap: US$3.325b
    • Shares outstanding: 43.96m
    • Website: https://www.nhireit.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • National Health Investors, Inc.
    • 222 Robert Rose Drive
    • Murfreesboro
    • Tennessee
    • 37129
    • United States

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    NHINYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDOct 1991
    WX6DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEUROct 1991

    Biography

    Incorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc. (NYSE: NHI) is a real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint-venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical investments. NHI’s portfolio consists of independent, assisted and memory care communities, entrance-fee retirement communities, skilled nursing facilities, medical office buildings and specialty hospitals. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/18 20:53
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/17 00:00
    Earnings2019/09/30
    Annual Earnings2018/12/31


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.