Stock Analysis

Vonovia (ETR:VNA investor three-year losses grow to 41% as the stock sheds €1.7b this past week

XTRA:VNA
Source: Shutterstock

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) share price has gained 13% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 51% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.

With the stock having lost 7.3% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Vonovia saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:VNA Earnings Per Share Growth February 8th 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Vonovia's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Vonovia, it has a TSR of -41% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Vonovia shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 7.3% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 4% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Vonovia (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

But note: Vonovia may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Vonovia is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.