China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited

BST:SWL Stock Report

Market Cap: €780.1m

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Valuation

Is SWL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SWL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SWL (€0.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€0.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SWL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SWL?

Key metric: As SWL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SWL. This is calculated by dividing SWL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SWL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio4x
EarningsCN¥1.47b
Market CapCN¥5.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SWL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SWL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.2x
INS Instone Real Estate Group
25.5x37.9%€365.6m
CRZK CR Energy
9.9x39.8%€121.8m
GWK3 GAG Immobilien
24xn/a€848.5m
SPB Sedlmayr Grund und Immobilien
65.6xn/a€903.2m
SWL China Overseas Grand Oceans Group
4x7.4%€6.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SWL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the peer average (31.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SWL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Real Estate Industry?

22 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SWL 4.0xIndustry Avg. 18.0xNo. of Companies30PE01224364860+
22 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SWL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the European Real Estate industry average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SWL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SWL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4x
Fair PE Ratio10.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SWL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SWL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.20
€0.30
+52.2%
12.6%€0.35€0.24n/a7
Nov ’25€0.23
€0.29
+27.8%
12.6%€0.35€0.24n/a7
Oct ’25€0.22
€0.24
+9.7%
9.1%€0.28€0.21n/a7
Sep ’25€0.16
€0.24
+51.3%
9.1%€0.28€0.21n/a7
Aug ’25€0.16
€0.30
+81.2%
12.2%€0.37€0.25n/a7
Jul ’25€0.21
€0.30
+42.0%
11.8%€0.37€0.25n/a7
Jun ’25€0.23
€0.30
+32.1%
11.8%€0.37€0.25n/a7
May ’25€0.18
€0.30
+67.3%
11.8%€0.37€0.25n/a7
Apr ’25€0.18
€0.33
+78.9%
25.0%€0.53€0.25n/a8
Mar ’25€0.21
€0.47
+121.5%
20.7%€0.65€0.32n/a8
Feb ’25€0.19
€0.49
+159.0%
16.3%€0.65€0.39n/a8
Jan ’25€0.28
€0.52
+88.5%
12.7%€0.66€0.45n/a8
Dec ’24€0.28
€0.52
+85.8%
12.7%€0.66€0.45n/a8
Nov ’24€0.29
€0.52
+77.0%
12.7%€0.66€0.45€0.238
Oct ’24€0.37
€0.54
+45.3%
11.6%€0.67€0.45€0.228
Sep ’24€0.34
€0.52
+52.1%
11.2%€0.64€0.43€0.169
Aug ’24€0.43
€0.57
+31.8%
12.2%€0.64€0.45€0.1610
Jul ’24€0.41
€0.58
+41.6%
11.6%€0.66€0.46€0.2110
Jun ’24€0.40
€0.58
+45.2%
11.6%€0.66€0.46€0.2310
May ’24€0.51
€0.55
+7.4%
12.4%€0.64€0.45€0.189
Apr ’24€0.38
€0.51
+33.3%
12.8%€0.65€0.42€0.189
Mar ’24€0.36
€0.53
+48.0%
10.8%€0.65€0.46€0.218
Feb ’24€0.43
€0.52
+22.1%
11.2%€0.65€0.46€0.198
Jan ’24€0.38
€0.55
+44.5%
12.6%€0.66€0.47€0.287
Dec ’23€0.41
€0.59
+46.1%
12.6%€0.71€0.50€0.287
Nov ’23€0.28
€0.59
+114.9%
12.6%€0.71€0.50€0.297

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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