Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:MOL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:MOL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Moleculin Biotech's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Moleculin Biotech's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Moleculin Biotech's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Moleculin Biotech's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Unable to determine if Moleculin Biotech is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Moleculin Biotech's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Moleculin Biotech's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Moleculin Biotech is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Moleculin Biotech's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Moleculin Biotech's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
Low level of unsold assets.
Moleculin Biotech has no debt, it does not need to be covered by short term assets.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Walter V. Klemp, also known as Wally, founded Moleculin Biotech, Inc. in July 2015 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since July 2015 and President since August 23, 2017. He is a Founder of Soliton, Inc. and serves as its Executive Chairman since July 2018. Mr. Klemp served as the President and Treasurer at Soliton, Inc. until July 2018. He served as Chief Executive Officer of Soliton, Inc. since November 2011 until July 2018, where he developed and marketed dermatology devices and drugs from concept through FDA approval and market launch. He co-founded Moleculin LLC and served as its Part-Time Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Klemp served as President and Chief Executive Officer of LumaTherm, Inc. (formerly Tyrell Inc.). He directed the Tyrell's development of its key product, Zeno, a medical device, intended for over-the-counter treatment of acne, that utilizes revolutionary new technology. Mr. Klemp served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Zeno Corporation from 2004 to April 2011, where he developed and marketed dermatology devices and drugs from concept through FDA approval and market launch. Mr. Klemp founded Syntronyx Global Corporation. He served as the Chief Executive Officer of Syntronyx Global Corporation from 2001 to 2002. Prior to Syntronyx, he founded Drypers Corporation and served as its Chairman & Chief Executive Officer from 1987 to 2000. He started the Drypers Corporation with a college friend in his basement in the mid-1980s and eventually built it into a $400 million publicly traded company, with 2,400 employees and operations in seven countries. Prior to Drypers, Mr. Klemp was a CPA with Coopers & Lybrand (now PricewaterhouseCoopers). He has established a strong history of entrepreneurial achievement. Throughout his career, he has founded three companies and filed six U.S. patents. He has been Chairman of Moleculin Biotech, Inc. since July 2015. Mr. Klemp served as Chairman of Moleculin, L.L.C. He served as the chairman of Syntronyx Global Corporation from 2001 to 2002. He served as a Director of Drypers Corporation since February 1987. He serves as a Director of Soliton, Inc. He served as Member of Business Advisory Board at Moleculin Biotech, Inc. While a student, he was also recognized as Oregon's state champion orator. Mr. Klemp earned a B.A. from Lewis & Clark College, graduating with honors as the business school's “Outstanding Accounting Scholar.
Wally's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
Wally's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Moleculin Biotech management team is about average.
Executive VP & CFO
Chief Scientific Officer
Co-Founder and Chairman of Scientific Advisory Board
Chief Medical Officer
Chief Medical Officer of New Products
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Moleculin Biotech board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors
Co-Founder and Chairman of Scientific Advisory Board
Moleculin Biotech, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of oncology drug candidates. Its lead drug candidate is Annamycin that is in Phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment of relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the United States and Poland. The company's flagship immune/transcription modulator is WP1066, a STAT3 inhibitor, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of brain tumor, as well as to treat pancreatic cancer, AML, and glioblastoma. It also develops WP1220, an analog of WP1066 for the topical treatment of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma in Poland; and WP1732, an analog of WP1066 for the treatment of AML, pancreatic, and other cancers. The company's lead metabolism/glycosylation inhibitor compound is WP1122, a prodrug of 2-deoxyglucose to treat brain tumors and pancreatic cancer. In addition, it develops WP1234 for the treatment of pancreatic cancer. Further, the company engages in the preclinical development of other drug candidates, including other immune/transcription modulators and metabolism/glycosylation inhibitors. It has an agreement with the University of Iowa Pharmaceuticals for the development of a formulation for WP1732; collaboration with Dermin Sp. zoo for the development of WP1220; and collaboration with M.D. Anderson Cancer Center for the development of WP1732 and WP1066. Moleculin Biotech, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
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