Mesoblast Limited

DB:LWB Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.1b

Mesoblast Valuation

Is LWB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LWB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LWB (€0.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€16.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LWB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LWB?

Key metric: As LWB barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for LWB. This is calculated by dividing LWB's market cap by their current book value.
What is LWB's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2.5x
BookUS$480.36m
Market CapUS$1.20b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does LWB's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for LWB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
BIO3 Biotest
2x82.7%€1.4b
FYB Formycon
1.4x31.5%€820.2m
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma
2.9x-33.0%€105.3m
MDG1 Medigene
1.2x-4.1%€23.3m
LWB Mesoblast
2.5x61.5%€1.8b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: LWB is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does LWB's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
V9Z Aceragen
0.1xn/aUS$3.12m
V9Z Aceragen
0.1xn/aUS$2.18m
O7P NeuBase Therapeutics
0.1xn/aUS$1.39m
No more companies available in this PB range
LWB 2.5xIndustry Avg. 2.3xNo. of Companies3PB00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: LWB is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.5x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (2.3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LWB's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LWB PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.5x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LWB's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LWB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.94
€0.90
-5.2%
22.0%€1.15€0.67n/a3
Nov ’25€0.68
€0.90
+32.7%
22.0%€1.15€0.67n/a3
Oct ’25€0.65
€0.90
+38.9%
22.0%€1.15€0.67n/a3
Sep ’25€0.54
€0.90
+65.9%
22.0%€1.15€0.68n/a3
Aug ’25n/a
€0.77
0%
12.0%€0.86€0.68n/a2
Jul ’25€0.60
€0.67
+11.3%
27.3%€0.85€0.49n/a2
Jun ’25€0.65
€0.67
+2.8%
27.3%€0.85€0.49n/a2
May ’25€0.58
€0.67
+15.2%
27.3%€0.85€0.49n/a2
Apr ’25€0.42
€0.42
-0.9%
15.9%€0.48€0.35n/a2
Mar ’25€0.15
€0.38
+153.2%
9.4%€0.42€0.35n/a2
Feb ’25€0.13
€0.36
+168.4%
1.7%€0.37€0.35n/a2
Jan ’25€0.16
€0.72
+339.8%
1.7%€0.73€0.71n/a2
Dec ’24€0.23
€0.83
+260.9%
15.9%€0.96€0.70n/a2
Nov ’24€0.19
€0.83
+332.3%
15.9%€0.96€0.70€0.682
Oct ’24€0.20
€1.24
+506.4%
47.8%€2.06€0.69€0.653
Sep ’24€0.23
€1.24
+430.9%
46.9%€2.05€0.72€0.543
Aug ’24€0.65
€2.07
+221.3%
17.2%€2.48€1.61n/a3
Jul ’24€0.68
€2.07
+207.0%
17.2%€2.48€1.61€0.603
Jun ’24€0.65
€2.07
+218.8%
17.2%€2.48€1.61€0.653
May ’24€0.51
€2.07
+310.3%
17.2%€2.48€1.61€0.583
Apr ’24€0.57
€2.07
+266.1%
17.2%€2.48€1.61€0.423
Mar ’24€0.59
€2.13
+264.0%
21.2%€2.59€1.68€0.152
Feb ’24€0.66
€1.91
+189.9%
11.9%€2.13€1.68€0.132
Jan ’24€0.54
€1.98
+266.5%
13.8%€2.25€1.70€0.162
Dec ’23€0.70
€1.98
+181.0%
13.8%€2.25€1.70€0.232
Nov ’23€0.59
€1.98
+233.1%
13.8%€2.25€1.70€0.192

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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