Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

DB:HDP1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.9b

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Valuation

Is HDP1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDP1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate HDP1's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate HDP1's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDP1?

Key metric: As HDP1 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HDP1. This is calculated by dividing HDP1's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HDP1's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.1x
SalesUS$545.21m
Market CapUS$2.17b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HDP1's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HDP1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.9x
BIO3 Biotest
1.9xn/a€1.4b
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma
22.2x39.66%€152.4m
FYB Formycon
5.9x18.84%€409.6m
DMP Dermapharm Holding
1.6x2.67%€1.9b
HDP1 Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
4.1x-2.81%€2.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HDP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (7.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HDP1's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BIO3 Biotest
1.9xn/aUS$1.62b
2INV 2invest
2.7xn/aUS$79.00m
CNW co.don
0.7xn/aUS$6.97m
V9Z Aceragen
0.4xn/aUS$3.12m
HDP1 4.1xIndustry Avg. 7.6xNo. of Companies10PS01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HDP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (7.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDP1's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDP1 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.1x
Fair PS Ratio1.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HDP1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HDP1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€13.85
€39.45
+184.83%
44.62%€70.92€15.07n/a14
May ’26€11.75
€39.95
+240.01%
43.92%€70.02€18.38n/a14
Apr ’26€11.68
€42.16
+261.16%
43.92%€73.90€19.40n/a14
Mar ’26€18.09
€43.66
+141.36%
43.42%€76.29€20.03n/a14
Feb ’26€19.36
€45.52
+135.14%
40.48%€76.67€23.00n/a14
Jan ’26€19.00
€45.52
+139.60%
40.48%€76.67€23.00n/a14
Dec ’25€24.79
€42.96
+73.28%
39.17%€67.20€21.77n/a13
Nov ’25€17.55
€42.83
+144.10%
37.04%€64.30€18.11n/a14
Oct ’25€17.24
€42.83
+148.49%
37.04%€64.30€18.11n/a14
Sep ’25€21.61
€42.30
+95.74%
37.34%€63.61€17.02n/a14
Aug ’25€26.22
€46.34
+76.75%
33.18%€68.20€24.88n/a14
Jul ’25€24.01
€49.09
+104.45%
37.17%€84.27€25.28n/a14
Jun ’25€20.90
€49.47
+136.71%
36.21%€82.81€24.84n/a13
May ’25€21.45
€50.14
+133.77%
34.47%€84.10€26.16€11.7514
Apr ’25€26.39
€51.18
+93.95%
33.30%€83.52€25.98€11.6813
Mar ’25€29.53
€51.18
+73.32%
33.30%€83.52€25.98€18.0913
Feb ’25€29.55
€50.97
+72.48%
36.04%€82.71€24.81€19.3613
Jan ’25€27.94
€48.54
+73.74%
39.57%€81.99€21.86€19.0014
Dec ’24€20.00
€50.64
+153.22%
36.51%€82.76€22.07€24.7913
Nov ’24€23.13
€52.85
+128.48%
34.67%€85.04€24.57€17.5514
Oct ’24€25.31
€53.11
+109.83%
33.91%€84.28€25.28€17.2414
Sep ’24€25.35
€54.19
+113.76%
32.04%€83.31€24.99€21.6113
Aug ’24€31.15
€55.85
+79.28%
28.11%€80.87€24.26€26.2213
Jul ’24€32.81
€56.83
+73.22%
28.44%€82.81€24.84€24.0113
Jun ’24€31.99
€57.64
+80.18%
27.99%€83.57€25.07€20.9014
May ’24€31.48
€55.49
+76.26%
28.76%€81.68€24.50€21.4514
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
€37.83
Fair Value
63.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/20 00:59
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/20 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is covered by 31 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Ying HuangBarclays
Jason Matthew GerberryBofA Global Research