Geron Corporation

DB:GON Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.4b

Geron Valuation

Is GON undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GON when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GON (€3.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€37.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GON is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GON?

Key metric: As GON barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for GON. This is calculated by dividing GON's market cap by their current book value.
What is GON's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio8.6x
BookUS$292.28m
Market CapUS$2.52b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does GON's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for GON vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
BIO3 Biotest
2x29.3%€1.3b
FYB Formycon
1.5x32.4%€882.8m
2INV 2invest
1xn/a€64.4m
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma
3.1x-33.0%€110.9m
GON Geron
8.6x72.4%€2.5b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: GON is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does GON's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
V9Z Aceragen
0.1xn/aUS$3.12m
V9Z Aceragen
0.1xn/aUS$2.18m
O7P NeuBase Therapeutics
0.1xn/aUS$1.39m
No more companies available in this PB range
GON 8.6xIndustry Avg. 2.4xNo. of Companies3PB00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: GON is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (8.6x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (2.4x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GON's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GON PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio8.6x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GON's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GON forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.89
€6.90
+77.6%
20.0%€9.26€5.09n/a10
Nov ’25€3.72
€6.58
+76.8%
20.3%€9.19€5.05n/a9
Oct ’25€4.01
€6.62
+65.2%
20.2%€9.06€4.98n/a8
Sep ’25€4.06
€6.74
+66.0%
21.4%€9.16€5.04n/a7
Aug ’25€4.33
€6.72
+55.4%
22.9%€9.23€4.61n/a7
Jul ’25€3.89
€6.45
+65.7%
26.1%€9.29€4.18n/a8
Jun ’25€3.18
€5.66
+78.1%
29.3%€9.32€4.19n/a7
May ’25€3.85
€5.40
+40.3%
30.6%€9.33€4.20n/a7
Apr ’25€3.03
€4.68
+54.6%
8.8%€5.52€4.14n/a6
Mar ’25€1.83
€4.39
+139.6%
14.6%€5.55€3.70n/a6
Feb ’25€1.70
€4.51
+165.3%
14.2%€5.60€3.73n/a6
Jan ’25€1.94
€4.51
+132.5%
14.2%€5.60€3.73n/a6
Dec ’24€1.74
€4.51
+158.8%
14.2%€5.60€3.73n/a6
Nov ’24€1.79
€4.44
+147.4%
14.2%€5.51€3.67€3.726
Oct ’24€1.97
€4.44
+125.5%
14.2%€5.51€3.67€4.016
Sep ’24€2.22
€4.44
+99.8%
14.2%€5.51€3.67€4.066
Aug ’24€2.93
€4.46
+52.6%
14.2%€5.54€3.69€4.336
Jul ’24€2.83
€4.46
+58.0%
14.2%€5.54€3.69€3.896
Jun ’24€3.05
€4.43
+45.2%
14.2%€5.50€3.66€3.186
May ’24€2.13
€4.32
+102.8%
20.2%€5.56€2.78€3.856
Apr ’24€1.93
€4.32
+124.4%
20.2%€5.56€2.78€3.036
Mar ’24€2.61
€4.97
+90.7%
17.7%€6.52€3.73€1.836
Feb ’24€3.00
€4.97
+65.5%
17.7%€6.52€3.73€1.706
Jan ’24€1.96
€4.11
+110.3%
31.7%€6.65€2.85€1.946
Dec ’23€2.21
€4.44
+101.5%
31.7%€7.18€3.08€1.746
Nov ’23€2.21
€4.39
+98.3%
31.7%€7.09€3.04€1.796

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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