Emergent BioSolutions Valuation

Is ER4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ER4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ER4 (€9.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€117.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ER4 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ER4?

Key metric: As ER4 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ER4. This is calculated by dividing ER4's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ER4's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.5x
Sales	US$1.13b
Market Cap	US$556.47m

ER4 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-225.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ER4's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ER4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.2x
FYB Formycon	15.8x	24.6%	€958.8m
BIO3 Biotest	1.5x	3.6%	€1.4b
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma	13.5x	16.6%	€114.6m
MDG1 Medigene	2x	16.4%	€15.1m
ER4 Emergent BioSolutions	0.5x	6.1%	€556.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ER4 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (8.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ER4's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	8.3x	20.0%
ER4 Emergent BioSolutions	0.5x	6.1%	US$556.47m
CNW co.don	0.7x	n/a	US$6.97m
V9Z Aceragen	0.4x	n/a	US$3.12m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	8.3x	35.4%
ER4 Emergent BioSolutions	0.5x	117.1%	US$556.47m

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Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ER4 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (8.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ER4's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ER4 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.5x
Fair PS Ratio	2.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ER4 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ER4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€9.85	€12.98 +31.8%	11.1%	€14.42	€11.54	n/a	2
Jul ’24	€6.96	€16.01 +130.0%	19.0%	€20.32	€13.85	€6.27	3
Jun ’24	€7.95	€14.16 +78.2%	30.2%	€20.42	€8.36	€5.08	4
May ’24	€7.78	€16.34 +110.1%	35.0%	€23.02	€8.29	€1.74	4
Apr ’24	€9.22	€15.32 +66.1%	40.4%	€23.44	€8.44	€2.39	3
Mar ’24	€11.62	€19.70 +69.5%	20.6%	€23.45	€14.07	€2.92	3
Feb ’24	€12.04	€30.31 +151.7%	38.7%	€53.10	€22.20	€1.54	5
Jan ’24	€11.04	€30.31 +174.6%	38.7%	€53.10	€22.20	€2.22	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/03 04:57
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Jasper Hellweg	Argus Research Company
Robert Wasserman	Benchmark Company
Louise Chen	Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.