Bavarian Nordic A/S

DB:BV3 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.1b

Bavarian Nordic Valuation

Is BV3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BV3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BV3 (€26.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€68.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BV3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BV3?

Key metric: As BV3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BV3. This is calculated by dividing BV3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BV3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14x
EarningsDKK 1.12b
Market CapDKK 15.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BV3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BV3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.5x
BIO3 Biotest
15.4x29.3%€1.3b
FYB Formycon
14.8x30.6%€942.9m
2INV 2invest
13.3xn/a€66.7m
DMP Dermapharm Holding
22.7x17.0%€2.1b
BV3 Bavarian Nordic
14x3.6%€15.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BV3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (16.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BV3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BV3 14.0xIndustry Avg. 28.1xNo. of Companies5PE020406080100+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BV3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (28.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BV3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BV3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14x
Fair PE Ratio13.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BV3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BV3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€26.20
€42.83
+63.5%
16.4%€49.60€31.91n/a4
Dec ’25€26.18
€42.83
+63.6%
16.4%€49.60€31.91n/a4
Nov ’25€28.50
€42.22
+48.1%
17.2%€50.26€30.83n/a4
Oct ’25€29.99
€41.69
+39.0%
15.8%€50.30€30.85n/a5
Sep ’25€35.45
€38.33
+8.1%
25.7%€50.93€23.59n/a5
Aug ’25€24.81
€35.29
+42.2%
20.3%€44.38€23.60n/a5
Jul ’25€23.14
€35.29
+52.5%
20.3%€44.38€23.60n/a5
Jun ’25€24.06
€35.12
+46.0%
21.1%€44.37€22.79n/a5
May ’25€20.40
€35.49
+74.0%
22.3%€46.24€22.79n/a5
Apr ’25€20.58
€37.13
+80.4%
20.9%€46.28€22.80n/a5
Mar ’25€20.57
€37.13
+80.5%
20.9%€46.28€22.80n/a5
Feb ’25€20.57
€39.29
+91.0%
21.1%€46.96€23.35n/a5
Jan ’25€23.98
€36.98
+54.2%
24.8%€46.95€23.34n/a6
Dec ’24€21.87
€36.98
+69.1%
24.8%€46.95€23.34€26.186
Nov ’24€18.27
€37.38
+104.6%
18.1%€45.55€28.67€28.506
Oct ’24€20.85
€39.21
+88.0%
21.9%€54.59€28.71€29.997
Sep ’24€20.46
€39.21
+91.6%
21.9%€54.59€28.71€35.457
Aug ’24€19.00
€41.48
+118.3%
22.5%€56.90€32.88€24.817
Jul ’24€25.75
€49.31
+91.5%
14.8%€57.06€35.58€23.147
Jun ’24€25.01
€49.31
+97.2%
14.8%€57.06€35.58€24.067
May ’24€24.46
€52.65
+115.3%
17.8%€64.52€35.62€20.407
Apr ’24€26.02
€52.65
+102.3%
17.8%€64.52€35.62€20.587
Mar ’24€28.61
€52.01
+81.8%
19.4%€64.45€35.58€20.576
Feb ’24€28.37
€53.79
+89.6%
18.9%€64.54€35.63€20.577
Jan ’24€28.69
€53.87
+87.8%
18.7%€64.55€36.18€23.987
Dec ’23€32.23
€53.87
+67.1%
18.7%€64.55€36.18€21.877

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 10:41
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Bavarian Nordic A/S is covered by 15 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter AnkersenABG Sundal Collier
Jacob LademannCarnegie Investment Bank AB
Peter VerdultCitigroup Inc