Merck Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Merck is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16% and 5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 15.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 34.9% in 3 years.

Key information

16.0%

Earnings growth rate

15.8%

EPS growth rate

Pharmaceuticals earnings growth	21.6%
Revenue growth rate	5.0%
Future return on equity	34.9%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	20 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

DB:6MK - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	71,440	24,668	25,485	29,819	24
12/31/2025	67,497	22,088	23,354	26,887	26
12/31/2024	63,987	17,770	18,427	24,066	25
9/30/2024	63,174	12,148	14,840	18,264	N/A
6/30/2024	62,480	13,736	13,147	16,690	N/A
3/31/2024	61,403	2,306	11,040	14,757	N/A
12/31/2023	60,115	365	9,143	13,006	N/A
9/30/2023	59,315	4,608	13,167	17,190	N/A
6/30/2023	58,311	3,111	10,828	15,075	N/A
3/31/2023	57,869	13,030	11,262	15,673	N/A
12/31/2022	59,283	14,519	14,707	19,095	N/A
9/30/2022	58,974	15,322	15,249	19,696	N/A
6/30/2022	57,169	16,641	14,398	18,891	N/A
3/31/2022	53,978	13,910	12,870	17,220	N/A
12/31/2021	48,704	12,345	9,661	14,109	N/A
9/30/2021	46,131	5,908	8,401	13,072	N/A
6/30/2021	43,906	3,665	6,953	11,897	N/A
3/31/2021	41,857	4,793	6,659	11,184	N/A
12/31/2020	41,518	4,519	5,812	10,241	N/A
9/30/2020	42,438	9,492	6,906	11,041	N/A
6/30/2020	43,906	9,070	7,996	11,645	N/A
3/31/2020	46,312	9,399	8,947	12,811	N/A
12/31/2019	39,121	5,690	10,071	13,440	N/A
9/30/2019	45,970	9,314	8,973	12,238	N/A
6/30/2019	44,367	9,362	7,846	10,805	N/A
3/31/2019	43,073	8,399	8,343	11,103	N/A
12/31/2018	42,294	6,220	8,307	10,922	N/A
9/30/2018	41,729	3,347	8,948	11,349	N/A
6/30/2018	41,259	1,341	N/A	7,385	N/A
3/31/2018	40,725	1,579	N/A	7,320	N/A
12/31/2017	40,122	2,394	N/A	6,451	N/A
9/30/2017	39,804	2,845	N/A	6,064	N/A
6/30/2017	40,016	5,086	N/A	10,206	N/A
3/31/2017	39,929	4,346	N/A	8,489	N/A
12/31/2016	39,807	3,920	N/A	10,376	N/A
9/30/2016	39,907	5,492	N/A	10,990	N/A
6/30/2016	39,444	5,133	N/A	11,330	N/A
3/31/2016	39,385	4,614	N/A	12,427	N/A
12/31/2015	39,498	4,442	N/A	12,538	N/A
9/30/2015	39,765	10,781	N/A	7,128	N/A
6/30/2015	40,249	9,850	N/A	8,165	N/A
3/31/2015	41,398	11,168	N/A	7,783	N/A
12/31/2014	42,237	11,920	N/A	7,989	N/A
9/30/2014	43,075	5,385	N/A	12,050	N/A
6/30/2014	43,550	5,614	N/A	11,651	N/A
3/31/2014	43,626	4,516	N/A	11,674	N/A
12/31/2013	44,033	4,404	N/A	11,654	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 6MK's forecast earnings growth (16% per year) is above the savings rate (1%).

Earnings vs Market: 6MK's earnings (16% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (20.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 6MK's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 6MK's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 6MK's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 6MK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (34.9%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/22 20:17
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Merck & Co., Inc. is covered by 61 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
David Toung	Argus Research Company
Fabrizio Spagna	Axia Financial Research
Ishan Majumdar	Baptista Research

Merck Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Merck Announces Topline Results from Pivotal Phase 3 Trials Evaluating Investigational, Once-Daily, Oral, Two-Drug, Single-Tablet Regimen of Doravirine/Islatravir (DOR/ISL) for the Treatment of Adults with Virologically Suppressed HIV-1 Infection

Merck Announces FDA Acceptance of Biologics License Application for Clesrovimab, an Investigational Long-Acting Monoclonal Antibody Designed to Protect Infants from RSV Disease During their First RSV Season

Merck & Co., Inc. Provides Update on KeyVibe and KEYFORM Clinical Development Programs Evaluating Investigational Vibostolimab and Favezelimab Fixed-Dose Combinations with Pembrolizumab

Merck Receives Positive EU CHMP Opinion for WELIREG®? (belzutifan) as Treatment for Adult Patients with Certain Types of Von Hippel-Lindau Disease-Associated Tumors and for Certain Previously Treated Adult Patients with Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma

Merck Announces Phase 3 KEYLYNK-001 Trial Met Primary Endpoint of Progression-Free Survival (PFS) in Patients With Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Merck & Co., Inc. Announces First Presentation of Data from the Phase 2 Waveline-007 Trial Evaluating Zilovertamab Vedotin

Merck & Co., Inc. Announces Initiation of Phase 3 Study (MOVe-NOW) Evaluating LAGEVRIOTM (Molnupiravir) for the Treatment of Covid-19 in High-Risk Adults

Merck's Sacituzumab Tirumotecan Granted FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Advanced EGFR-Mutated NSCLC

Merck Announces Pivotal Phase 3 Zenith Trial Evaluating Winrevair Met Primary Endpoint At Interim Analysis

Merck & Co., Inc. Appoints Surendralal L. Karsanbha to its Board of Directors, Effective January 1, 2025

Merck & Co., Inc.'s WELIREG (Belzutifan) Approves in China for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Certain Types of Von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) Disease-Associated Tumors

Merck Announces Phase 3 Trial of Subcutaneous Pembrolizumab with Berahyaluronidase Alfa Met Primary Endpoints

Merck Receives Positive EU CHMP Opinion for KEYTRUDA Plus Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Adult Patients with Unresectable Non-Epithelioid Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma

Alexion, AstraZeneca Rare Disease and Merck Announces Positive Topline Results from the Phase 3 Komet Trial

Merck Announces Canada's Drug Agency Recommends WINREVAIR (sotatercept) for Reimbursement

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$1.24 (vs US$1.87 in 3Q 2023)

Merck and Moderna, Inc. Initiates Phase 3 Trial Evaluating Adjuvant V940 (mRNA-4157) in Combination with KEYTRUDA (Pembrolizumab) After Neoadjuvant KEYTRUDA and Chemotherapy in Patients with Certain Types of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

CDC's ACIP Recommends Merck's CAPVAXIVE™ (Pneumococcal 21-valent Conjugate Vaccine) for Pneumococcal Vaccination in Adults 50 Years of Age and Older

Merck's KEYTRUDA® (Pembrolizumab) Receives 30th Approval from European Commission with Two New Indications in Gynecologic Cancers

Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Merck Announce Phase 2 Data Showing a Treatment Switch to an Investigational Oral Once-Weekly Combination Regimen of Islatravir and Lenacapavir Maintained Viral Suppression in Adults at Week 48

Merck Announces the Presentation of Positive Results from the Phase 2B/3 Clinical Trial (Mk-1654-004) Evaluating Clesrovimab

Merck’s CAPVAXIVE™ (Pneumococcal 21-valent Conjugate Vaccine) Demonstrates Positive Immune Responses in Adults with Increased Risk for Pneumococcal Disease

Merck & Co., Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2024

FDA Approves Merck's KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) Plus Pemetrexed and Platinum Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Adult Patients with Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma

Merck Announces Overall Survival Results from the Final Analysis of the Phase 3 Keynote-811 Trial Evaluating Keytruda® (Pembrolizumab)

Upcoming dividend of US$0.77 per share

Merck Announces WINREVAIR (Sotatercept) Is Authorized for Use in Canada for Adults with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Merck & Co., Inc. and EyeBio Announce Initiation of Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial for Restoret™? for the Treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema

European Commission Approves Merck's KEYTRUDA (Pembrolizumab) Plus Padcev (Enfortumab Vedotin-Ejfv) as First-Line Treatment of Unresectable or Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma in Adults

Merck & Co., Inc. Provides Update on Phase 3 KEYNOTE-867 and KEYNOTE-630 Trials

Merck Receives European Commission Approval for Winrevair (Sotatercept) in Combination with Other Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (Pah) Therapies, for the Treatment of Pah in Adult Patients with Functional Class II-III

Health Canada Approves Merck's KEYTRUDA® for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer with No Prior Systemic Therapy for mUC, in Combination with Enfortumab Vedotin

Merck & Co., Inc. Provides Update on Phase 3 KeyVibe-008 Trial Evaluating an Investigational Fixed-Dose Combination of Vibostolimab and Pembrolizumab in Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer