Merck Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Merck is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 15.5% and 5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 15.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 35.5% in 3 years.

Key information

15.5%

Earnings growth rate

15.7%

EPS growth rate

Pharmaceuticals earnings growth	19.5%
Revenue growth rate	5.0%
Future return on equity	35.5%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	12 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

DB:6MK - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	71,728	24,823	25,523	31,137	23
12/31/2025	67,750	22,329	23,606	28,212	25
12/31/2024	64,095	18,395	16,267	23,839	25
9/30/2024	63,174	12,148	14,840	18,264	N/A
6/30/2024	62,480	13,736	13,147	16,690	N/A
3/31/2024	61,403	2,306	11,040	14,757	N/A
12/31/2023	60,115	365	9,143	13,006	N/A
9/30/2023	59,315	4,608	13,167	17,190	N/A
6/30/2023	58,311	3,111	10,828	15,075	N/A
3/31/2023	57,869	13,030	11,262	15,673	N/A
12/31/2022	59,283	14,519	14,707	19,095	N/A
9/30/2022	58,974	15,322	15,249	19,696	N/A
6/30/2022	57,169	16,641	14,398	18,891	N/A
3/31/2022	53,978	13,910	12,870	17,220	N/A
12/31/2021	48,704	12,345	9,661	14,109	N/A
9/30/2021	46,131	5,908	8,401	13,072	N/A
6/30/2021	43,906	3,665	6,953	11,897	N/A
3/31/2021	41,857	4,793	6,659	11,184	N/A
12/31/2020	41,518	4,519	5,812	10,241	N/A
9/30/2020	42,438	9,492	6,906	11,041	N/A
6/30/2020	43,906	9,070	7,996	11,645	N/A
3/31/2020	46,312	9,399	8,947	12,811	N/A
12/31/2019	39,121	5,690	10,071	13,440	N/A
9/30/2019	45,970	9,314	8,973	12,238	N/A
6/30/2019	44,367	9,362	7,846	10,805	N/A
3/31/2019	43,073	8,399	8,343	11,103	N/A
12/31/2018	42,294	6,220	8,307	10,922	N/A
9/30/2018	41,729	3,347	8,948	11,349	N/A
6/30/2018	41,259	1,341	N/A	7,385	N/A
3/31/2018	40,725	1,579	N/A	7,320	N/A
12/31/2017	40,122	2,394	N/A	6,451	N/A
9/30/2017	39,804	2,845	N/A	6,064	N/A
6/30/2017	40,016	5,086	N/A	10,206	N/A
3/31/2017	39,929	4,346	N/A	8,489	N/A
12/31/2016	39,807	3,920	N/A	10,376	N/A
9/30/2016	39,907	5,492	N/A	10,990	N/A
6/30/2016	39,444	5,133	N/A	11,330	N/A
3/31/2016	39,385	4,614	N/A	12,427	N/A
12/31/2015	39,498	4,442	N/A	12,538	N/A
9/30/2015	39,765	10,781	N/A	7,128	N/A
6/30/2015	40,249	9,850	N/A	8,165	N/A
3/31/2015	41,398	11,168	N/A	7,783	N/A
12/31/2014	42,237	11,920	N/A	7,989	N/A
9/30/2014	43,075	5,385	N/A	12,050	N/A
6/30/2014	43,550	5,614	N/A	11,651	N/A
3/31/2014	43,626	4,516	N/A	11,674	N/A
12/31/2013	44,033	4,404	N/A	11,654	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 6MK's forecast earnings growth (15.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1%).

Earnings vs Market: 6MK's earnings (15.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (20.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 6MK's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 6MK's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (5.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 6MK's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 6MK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (35.5%)

Merck Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Merck & Co., Inc. Revises Earnings Guidance for the Year 2024

Recent updates

Alexion, AstraZeneca Rare Disease and Merck Announces Positive Topline Results from the Phase 3 Komet Trial

Merck Announces Canada's Drug Agency Recommends WINREVAIR (sotatercept) for Reimbursement

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$1.24 (vs US$1.87 in 3Q 2023)

Merck and Moderna, Inc. Initiates Phase 3 Trial Evaluating Adjuvant V940 (mRNA-4157) in Combination with KEYTRUDA (Pembrolizumab) After Neoadjuvant KEYTRUDA and Chemotherapy in Patients with Certain Types of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

CDC's ACIP Recommends Merck's CAPVAXIVE™ (Pneumococcal 21-valent Conjugate Vaccine) for Pneumococcal Vaccination in Adults 50 Years of Age and Older

Merck's KEYTRUDA® (Pembrolizumab) Receives 30th Approval from European Commission with Two New Indications in Gynecologic Cancers

Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Merck Announce Phase 2 Data Showing a Treatment Switch to an Investigational Oral Once-Weekly Combination Regimen of Islatravir and Lenacapavir Maintained Viral Suppression in Adults at Week 48

Merck Announces the Presentation of Positive Results from the Phase 2B/3 Clinical Trial (Mk-1654-004) Evaluating Clesrovimab

Merck’s CAPVAXIVE™ (Pneumococcal 21-valent Conjugate Vaccine) Demonstrates Positive Immune Responses in Adults with Increased Risk for Pneumococcal Disease

Merck & Co., Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2024

FDA Approves Merck's KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) Plus Pemetrexed and Platinum Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Adult Patients with Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma

Merck Announces Overall Survival Results from the Final Analysis of the Phase 3 Keynote-811 Trial Evaluating Keytruda® (Pembrolizumab)

Upcoming dividend of US$0.77 per share

Merck Announces WINREVAIR (Sotatercept) Is Authorized for Use in Canada for Adults with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Merck & Co., Inc. and EyeBio Announce Initiation of Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial for Restoret™? for the Treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema

European Commission Approves Merck's KEYTRUDA (Pembrolizumab) Plus Padcev (Enfortumab Vedotin-Ejfv) as First-Line Treatment of Unresectable or Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma in Adults

Merck & Co., Inc. Provides Update on Phase 3 KEYNOTE-867 and KEYNOTE-630 Trials

Merck Receives European Commission Approval for Winrevair (Sotatercept) in Combination with Other Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (Pah) Therapies, for the Treatment of Pah in Adult Patients with Functional Class II-III

Health Canada Approves Merck's KEYTRUDA® for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer with No Prior Systemic Therapy for mUC, in Combination with Enfortumab Vedotin

Merck & Co., Inc. Provides Update on Phase 3 KeyVibe-008 Trial Evaluating an Investigational Fixed-Dose Combination of Vibostolimab and Pembrolizumab in Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Daiichi Sankyo and Merck Announces IDeate-Lung02 Phase 3 Trial of Ifinatamab Deruxtecan Initiated in Patients with Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer

Insufficient new directors

Merck & Co., Inc. Revises Earnings Guidance for the Year 2024

Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$2.14 (vs US$2.35 loss in 2Q 2023)

First quarter dividend of US$0.77 announced

Merck Receives Positive Eu Chmp Opinion for Keytruda® (Pembrolizumab) PPlus Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) as First-Line Treatment for Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma

Merck Announces Topline Results from Phase 2b/3 Trial of Clesrovimab (MK-1654), an Investigational Respiratory Syncytial Virus Preventative Monoclonal Antibody for Infants

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

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