Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:6A3A using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:6A3A DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Autolus Therapeutics's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Autolus Therapeutics's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Autolus Therapeutics's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Autolus Therapeutics's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Autolus Therapeutics's revenue is expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Autolus Therapeutics's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Autolus Therapeutics's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Autolus Therapeutics is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Autolus Therapeutics's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Autolus Therapeutics's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
Low level of unsold assets.
Autolus Therapeutics has no debt, it does not need to be covered by short term assets.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Dr. Christian Martin Itin, also known as Chris, Ph.D., has been the Chief Executive Officer of Autolus Therapeutics Plc. and Autolus Limited since March 3, 2016. Dr. Itin has been Director of Autolus Holdings (UK) Limited since June 15, 2018. He served as the Chief Executive Officer of Cytos Biotechnology AG (alternative name Cytos Biotechnology Ltd.) since October 2012 and serves as its Member of Executive Board. He served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Micromet, Inc. from March 2004 to March 2, 2012. He co-founded Zyomyx, Inc. Dr. Itin also served in the following capacities with Micromet, Inc.'s subsidiary Micromet AG, where he served in Various Executive positions which includes: served as the Chief Business Officer from April 2002 to March 2004, Vice President of Business and Corporate Development from September 2001 to April 2002, Vice President of Corporate Development from September 2000 to September 2001 and Head of IP and Licensing from September 1999 to September 2000. Dr. Itin joined Micromet in 1999. He held various positions at it focused on business and corporate development. During the last five years he has consolidated the relevant intellectual property space for it, established all corporate partnerships and significantly shaped the corporate strategy. He has been Chairman of Autolus Therapeutics Plc. and Autolus Limited since February 2015 and has been its Director since October 20, 2014. He served as Chairman of the Board of Kuros Biosciences AG since January 2016 and serves as its Director. He served as the Chairman of Cytos Biotechnology AG since November 2012 and its Director since November 20, 2012. He has been a Non-Executive Director of Kymab Limited since September 2012. He has been a Director of Zyngenia, Inc. since October 11, 2012. Dr. Itin served as a Director of Micromet, Inc. from May 2006 to March 2, 2012. He studied Diploma in biology and PhD in Cell Biology from University of Basel, Switzerland and did post-doctoral research at the Biocenter of Basel University and Stanford University School of Medicine CA, USA.
Insufficient data for Chris to compare compensation growth.
Chris's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Autolus Therapeutics management team is about average.
Chairman & CEO
CFO & Senior VP
Senior VP & COO
Senior Vice President of Translational Sciences
Senior VP & Chief Medical Officer
Senior VP & Head of Product Delivery
Senior VP & Head of Clinical Operations
Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs & Quality
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Autolus Therapeutics board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Autolus Therapeutics plc, a biopharmaceutical company, develops T cell therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company is developing AUTO1 and AUTO3 for B cell malignancies; AUTO2 for the treatment of multiple myeloma; AUTO4 and AUTO 5 for T cell lymphoma; and AUTO6 and AUTO7 to treat solid tumors. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
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