Stock Analysis

Despite the downward trend in earnings at Gerresheimer (ETR:GXI) the stock increases 3.4%, bringing five-year gains to 69%

XTRA:GXI
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Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Gerresheimer AG (ETR:GXI) shareholders have enjoyed a 57% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 4.8% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 24% , including dividends .

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Gerresheimer

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Gerresheimer actually saw its EPS drop 3.9% per year.

So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

We doubt the modest 1.2% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, Gerresheimer's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 8.4% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
XTRA:GXI Earnings and Revenue Growth March 18th 2024

We know that Gerresheimer has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Gerresheimer stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Gerresheimer's TSR for the last 5 years was 69%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Gerresheimer shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 24% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 11%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Gerresheimer better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Gerresheimer has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course Gerresheimer may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Gerresheimer is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.